Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Celebratory Off-Hiatus Off-Season NSIC Thoughts

Great news, the NSIC Hoops Blog is now off hiatus. Unfortunately, I had to take some time off to finish my collegiate studies. However, now that I'm back, we're in the swing of the off-season and I can honestly say this has been one of the most dramatic off-seasons that I can remember in NSIC. Most of the drama seems to revolve around my alma matter, Winona State. However, that isn't to say other teams have had some interesting developments. Since we are in the middle of this off-season, I have 10 thoughts before the fall semester starts and NSIC Hoops starts getting into the swing of things.

1. How will Winona State respond after losing assistant coaches Tom Brown and Chris Gove?

It's no secret that Brown and Gove were the heart and soul of Winona State's recruiting. Brown was recently hired as the West Texas A&M head coach and Gove left with him to be his top assistant. To see Brown and Gove not on the WSU sideline will be an odd sight, since both coaches were with WSU for 16 seasons. These were the guys that could attract the local stars like David Zellmann, Zach Malvik, and most recently Riley Bambenek. That's not all they could recruit. Bringing in Curtrell Robinson was probably the best thing to ever happen to Winona State, since his presence also resulted in bringing in the likes of Jonte Flowers and Quincy Henderson. I think just about every Winona State fan, no, every NSIC fan knows what happened after that. Two national championship banners and an NCAA Division II consecutive winning streak record banner speak for themselves. Not only were they great recruiters, but they were great Xs and Os coaches. What could WSU's answer to their departure be? At least that question can be definitively answered with my next point.


2. Will WSU hiring Zach Malvik as the assistant coach alleviate the losses of Brown and Gove?

There is no doubt that WSU head coach Mike Leaf wanted to bring in a familiar face to the program and one that has at least some history in coaching. That resulted in bringing in St. Mary's assistant coach and former WSU point guard Zach Malvik to be his go-to man on the sidelines. Remember how I asked who will bring in the local stars? Well, figures that shortly after Malvik was named the assistant coach, WSU brings in Nebraska transfer and former Gale-Ettrick-Trembleau star Tim Wagner, signs La Crescent's all-time leading scorer Zack Melbostad, and also signs a Tunesian JUCO center Mohamed Ali Ben Ammar. It is interesting to see WSU sign their second foreign player in two seasons since Malvik highly recommended WSU signing Australian guard Corey Jeffs the previous year. With Malvik being from Holmen, WI and playing semi-pro ball in Australia, he has built a variety of connections that I believe will make him a solid recruiter, especially for local players. The Ali Ben Ammar signing is an interesting one since WSU rarely ever goes for JUCO players. Still, I have to wonder if the Ali Ben Ammar signing can alleviate the big shoes he's filling, shoes that I will get around to talking about that later. Still, on the coaching front, it wasn't like WSU was the only team going through some coaching drama.


3. Was St. Cloud State hiring Matt Reimer as their new head coach the right answer?

Kevin Schlagel was the glue that held SCSU together. He was a head coach for 17 years and an assistant for 18 years prior to that with the program. However, in those 17 years as the Huskies' head coach, he had one man at his side. Reimer. It didn't shock me in the least that Reimer was named SCSU's head coach this off-season and I believe it to be the right answer. The only question remains is whether or not he can turn SCSU back into conference title contenders. They've certainly been contenders in the NSIC North Division, co-championing the title last year and winning it outright the year before. Still, they haven't been able to win the overall NSIC title since joining the league back in 2008. They've certainly come close on a few occasions, but still no conference titles. I think what Reimer can do is take what Schlagel built and modify it a bit to turn SCSU into a perennial powerhouse that will be in conference championship hunts year in and year out. If they can't win the whole conference, they'll at least be able to contend for the NSIC North, which is the most important since the better the seed in the North, the more likely they won't have to play the NSIC South's best until the most important game, the NSIC Conference Championship Game. We shall see what sort of wild ride Reimer has in store for us. Still, Reimer wasn't the only head coaching splash made in this off-season.


4. Can new Minnesota-Crookston head coach Dan Weisse bring the Golden Eagles out of the proverbial NSIC cellar?

Let's face it, UMC has not been competitive at all in the NSIC. Year in and year out, they are constantly on the bottom of the NSIC standings and are often fortunate to get one win a year in the conference. In fact, the last time UMC didn't finish dead last in the conference was all the way back in 2003 when Minnesota-Morris won that illustrious title (I might be overreaching a bit with the sarcasm on this one). I've been saying since becoming an NSIC sports analyst back in 2005 that the Golden Eagles should move down to Division III because they just aren't competitive on this level. They don't have the facilities or recruiting advantages to keep them competitive with the likes of Minnesota State, Winona State, Augustana, SW Minnesota State, St. Cloud State, or even MSU-Moorhead, their closest rival. Still, I guess the one thing I can say is that might not be an excuse. Upper Iowa is similar in their school size and recruiting disadvantages, yet they've managed to be a pretty competitive team the last two seasons. They made the NCAA Division II Central Region tournament two years ago and still managed a 13-9 conference mark last year despite losing their head coach. The question remains, can Weisse make UMC competitive? My answer is...not immediately, if at all. Weisse did do some pretty good things as an assistant at MSU-Moorhead with Chad Walthall. Perhaps bringing in a guy who is familiar with the local athletes might help bring some more talented players to UM-Crookston. However, if that does happen, I doubt it will be immediately. While at Upper Iowa, it took current Wayne State head coach Brian Dolan to bring in some talented players to Upper Iowa to make them a really good team. The same goes for Minnesota-Duluth coach Matt Bowen when he was with Bemidji State. He led them to a conference title in 2012 (albeit, by default with WSU facing NCAA sanctions that season). Could Weisse do the same thing with UMC? It's possible, but I'd still be willing to bet UMC will be NSIC cellar dwellers for the next five years. Still, UMC isn't the only perennial cellar dweller that has a new coach...


5. Can Concordia-St. Paul make the jump to NSIC elite with the hiring of Joey James?

Is it surprising to see CSP fire Kelly Boe? Not in the least! I said for years that Concordia-St. Paul is the most underachieving team in the NSIC. You'd think with them being stationed in Twin Cities, they'd have ENORMOUS recruiting advantages over everyone in the NSIC, INCLUDING Minnesota State. However, I do believe their lack of facilities as well as poor coaching has kept them from being a great team. To be completely honest, I'm not even sure how Boe held the job for so long. CSP underachieved year in and year out with the tremendous amount of talent that they had. It was a team that didn't seem to be well coached under Boe. Whether it was a lack of coaching or a lack of discipline, something wasn't meshing and they were in desperate need for a change. It just so happens that timing worked out pretty well for them. With Dave Boots retiring at South Dakota, James was in prime position to find a new coaching job. Concordia-St. Paul is a pretty good stepping stone for James with it being a Division II college in a metropolitan midwest city. Boots achieved a mild amount of success in the Central Region when his South Dakota Coyotes were in Division II, so with Boots' tutelage, I'm sure James should be able to make the transition somewhat easily. Can I say for certain CSP will be contenders shortly upon James' arrival? I doubt it with the amount of talent at the likes of Winona State, Minnesota State, MSU-Moorhead, and Augustana, but I don't doubt he can get CSP back in the thick of things within the next three or four years. I think I've talked enough about coaches, so how about the players? There is quite a bit to discuss there, especially when it comes to the transfer front. 


6. Does former WSU center Skyler O'Laughlin's transfer to UW-Whitewater remove their chances of contending for an NSIC title?

The drama of the off-season didn't just end with the Winona State coaches. O'Laughlin was a staple of WSU's team this past year before his broken ankle during the Feb. 8 game against Wayne State derailed his season. Losing O'Laughlin certainly hurt, especially considering the youth and inexperience of WSU's post-play. After his injury, WSU had to rely on redshirt freshman Kyle Bauman, a sophomore transfer Nick Arenz, and a senior walk-on in Kyle Melcher. It seemed like this put an awful lot of pressure on Bauman, who habitually got into foul trouble post-O'Laughlin injury, Arenz who doesn't play like a true center, and Melcher who hadn't played competitive basketball since high school. It was no surprise that the center position went from a strength to a weakness with O'Laughlin's injury. However, the question remains, does his departure hurt WSU's chances to win the NSIC? My answer to that question would be yes and no. The reason why I'm answering that question so indecisively is due to the circumstances surrounding O'Laughlin's injury. His injury was gruesome and quite serious. While I wouldn't put it on the same level as Louisville guard Kevin Ware's compound fracture, the chances of him coming back and playing at the same level as he was before the injury is difficult to predict. I've seen an awful lot of injuries in the NSIC on the level of O'Laughlin's and let's just say when those guys came back, they weren't the same player. It probably would have been wishful thinking to think he could come back and be an immediate impact. While I don't think Ben Ammar can replace O'Laughlin's size and defensive presence, I do think he gives quite a bit of athleticism to the post position that could make WSU a lethal run-and-gun team. However, I don't think WSU's transfers will be able to hold a candle to the transfers they'll be going up against in my next point.


7. Does Minnesota State's new crop of Division I transfers make them the top contenders for the NSIC title yet again?

Trust me when I say no team hits up the Division I "waiver wire" like MSU head coach Matt Margenthaler during the off-season. This year, he is bringing in a 6'8" Davidson center Joe Aase from Austin, MN and a 6'4" Samford guard Connor Miller from Stanley, WI. Aase will have three years of eligibility and Miller will have one. MSU is pretty infamous for bringing in impact Division I transfers. To name a few, Zach Monaghan from South Dakota State, Jarvis Williams from UW-Green Bay, Jefferson Mason from Northern Colorado, and Travis Nelson from Wyoming. It's almost needless to say just how much of an impact those transfers had on the program. It seems like Margenthaler rarely misses on a D1 transfer. Still, the biggest question remains. Can these transfers fill the hole left by the players MSU is losing this year? MSU is losing its sharpshooting guard in Tanner Adler, the epitome of hustle in Connor O'Brien, it's fundamentally well-rounded star in Gage Wooten, as well as Alex Hanks, one of their contributors off the bench. It will be interesting to see because unlike a rebuilding team, MSU still has it's stars intact. They are bringing back first team all-NSIC players in Zach Monaghan and Assem Marei, both of which will be contenders for NSIC Player of the Year. It seems like what MSU needs are supporting role players that can pick up some of the scoring when opposing teams double and triple team their two stars. I'm sure MSU is hopeful that these transfers to can step in and fill in the holes being left behind, and I do say they will still be the top contenders for the NSIC. Although, I'm sure this next team is praying that the holes left by injuries can be filled in a hurry.


8. What gives with all the injuries at SCSU lately and can they recover from this injury plague that they are currently on?

It's no secret that the Huskies have been bitten by the injury bug the last four seasons. Between Kevin Levandoski, Theo Rothstein, Tim Bergstrasser, and Jesse Fisher, this team just can't catch a break with their star players getting hurt. Now, SCSU loses another important piece with 6'6" forward Seth Mortag for the 2014-2015 season due to a torn ACL. This could not have come at a worse time for SCSU, as they are already losing Matt Craggs, Damarius Cruz, and Chris Larson, all of which were big-time impact players for the 2013-2014 NSIC North Division co-champs. We also can't forget Levandoski is returning from injury and it is hard to say if he will be able to play at the same level. It's getting to the point where you can expect a star player on SCSU's squad to suffer a season ending injury that cripples their chances of winning a conference title or playing in the regional tournament. I would normally question the methods of SCSU's training staff, but looking at all these injuries, they appear to be fluke injuries that could happen to anyone. I almost feel compelled to give Reimer a lucky rabbit's foot to stick in his sock during games and practices just so they actually have some good luck for once on the injury front. I can assure you no team has been as unlucky as they've been when it comes to injuries. I do believe they have to get out of it at some point. The fact that they've had four straight seasons with a star player going down with a serious injury has me believing that it has to end some time, and for SCSU's sake, hopefully it's sooner rather than later.


9. I'm forgetting someone...oh right, Augustana...

If SCSU is the unluckiest team in the injury department, I can almost assure you that Augustana comes in a very close second. Between injuries, transfers, and program departures, the Vikings haven't been able to catch a break the last two years. Last year, it appeared we were going to have an NSIC All-Freshman showdown between WSU's Bambenek and Augie's Matt Brazendale...until Brazendale went down with an injury. Granted, he came back, but he wasn't quite able to get back to 100% before the end of the season. Or how about Brennan Olson's sudden departure? Or Zach Huisken's? Or Evan Pierce's injury? I've been saying for the last two years that Augie has a very young, talented team and they are very close to putting it all together. I thought they were going to be the top contenders for the conference championship right along with MSU this past season. Unfortunately, that didn't quite play out that way for them. Still, they have two very talented players in Casey Schilling and Daniel Jansen who I'd argue are right up there with MSU's Monaghan and Marei for best scoring duo in the NSIC. It's almost unfathomable at just how young this team is, with only one senior and three juniors with the rest of the roster being freshman or sophomores. With sensational sophomores Brazendale and Ethan Guske in the backcourt, I can foresee Augie being a tough team to beat in the conference this next year...barring any fluke injuries or departures. Finally...


10. Will the NSIC return to being the best conference in the region?

There is no doubt that the NSIC has been the toughest conference in the Central Region for many years. In the past nine seasons, an NSIC team has hosted the regional tournament eight times and participated seven Elite Eights. 

2014 - Central Missouri (Elite Eight), Minnesota State (Host)
2013 - Winona State (Elite Eight), Minnesota State (Host)
2012 - Metro State (Elite Eight), Metro State (Host)
2011 - Minnesota State (Elite Eight), Minnesota State (Host)
2010 - St. Cloud State (Elite Eight), Minnesota State (Host)
2009 - SW Minnesota State (Elite Eight), SW Minnesota State (Host)
2008 - Winona State (Elite Eight), Winona State (Host)
2007 - Winona State (Elite Eight), Winona State (Host)
2006 - Winona State (Elite Eight, Winona State (Host)

Last year, the NSIC didn't seem to represent the region very well. The NSIC only had two teams make the regional tournament and neither of them made it past the semi-final. With Central Missouri going through a bit of a coaching change and NW Missouri State losing some of its most talented players, this might be the year the NSIC jumps back into the fray. I thought in particular that the NSIC was kind of a young league last year and didn't quite have the seasoned veterans that could match up with the MIAA. I won't say the NSIC WILL make that jump, but I believe they will get back to having three or four teams in the regional tournament.

With that being said, I'm looking forward to the rest of this off-season and putting together my conference preview later on this summer. 


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Best Games of the Week (2/18-2/25/13)

Thursday, Feb. 21
Arkansas-Monticello (12-8) @ #10 Arkansas Tech (13-8)
Monticello was able to beat Arkansas Tech earlier in the year 56-49. However, the Wonder Boys are currently on a four-game win streak and are 8-1 at home. This could be a big game to help Tech get back into regional running.

Friday, Feb. 22
#9 Upper Iowa (16-9) @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
This will be a "something has to give game" game. The Peacocks are 10-2 on the road this season with wins at Winona State, Minnesota State, and St. Cloud State to boot, while Augustana is 12-1 on their home court.

#1 Winona State (22-5) @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
The Wildcats have been a relatively tough team on their home court with a 9-4 home mark. While I'm sure WSU is the heavy favorite, the fact that WSU has Augie the next night could make this a trap game for WSU.

Saturday, Feb. 23
#14 Pittsburg State (12-7) @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
While the Gorillas are riding high off a huge road win at Northeastern State, they can't overlook Central Oklahoma, who's won four straight and haven't lost in the month of February yet.

#12 Harding (15-7) @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
The Bison need a win in the worst way, especially on the road. They are 4-5 away from Searcy this season while Monticello is 10-3 at home. This will be a difficult game for Harding to win.

#9 Upper Iowa (16-9) @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
Considering the opponents both have faced the night before, this could be a must-win game for both teams if they want to get back into the regional running. I'd say it's probably a bigger must-win for Upper Iowa, who's chances of making the regional are much stronger than Wayne's.

#3 St. Cloud State (17-5) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
While this is far from the toughest game the Huskies have played all year, it could be one of the toughest road games considering the Beavers are 7-2 in Bemidji. Both teams are playing some pretty good ball at the moment.

#1 Winona State (22-5) @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
This is definitely the biggest game of the week. There is a lot on the line in this game as WSU is fighting for the #1 spot in the region while Augustana is trying to get a better NSIC and NCAA tourney seed.

#11 SW Minnesota State (15-11) @ #2 Minnesota State (18-4)
Earlier in the year, Minnesota State needed a frantic comeback to beat the Mustangs in Marshall. The Mustangs on the other hand need this win to try and improve their regional chances. They can no longer use their #1 SOS as an excuse, they need a win in the worst way.

#6 Fort Hays State (13-6) @ #8 Washburn (13-6)
While I called the WSU/AU game the biggest game of the week, I'd call this the 2nd biggest game of the week. Both teams are fighting to get in the regional, both teams are fighting for MIAA tournament seeding, and it might all come down to what happens in this game. Fort Hays squeaked out a one-point win last time they played.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Adam Stanek's Central Region Power Rankings (2/17/13)

Top Ten

1. Winona State - 22-5 (22-5 D2)
LW - 2 (+1)
Massey - 5
Wilson - 5
SOS - 2
Record vs. .500+ - 13-4
Quality Wins - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Grand Canyon-N (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Northern State (13-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10) @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), @ Ferris State (13-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (13-8), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills-N (13-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Metro State (21-0), @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), @ St. Cloud State (17-5)
Bad Losses - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - L vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14) 89-74, W vs. #2 Minnesota State (18-4) 75-64
TW - 2/22 @ #15 Wayne State (14-10), 2/23 @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
Analysis - This was pretty much a coin-flip decision. I did consider letting Minnesota State keep the #1 spot due to that horrible loss to Concordia-St. Paul for WSU, although another reason why MSU even had #1 over WSU was due to having the head-to-head...which is out of the picture now that the two teams split. After that, it all comes down to resume...which WSU was just a little bit better. Speaking of resumes, WSU has a golden opportunity to pad it with tough road games at Wayne State and Augustana this week.

2. Minnesota State - 20-4 (18-4 D2)
LW - 1 (-1)
Massey - 8
Wilson - 6
SOS - 16
Record vs. .500+ - 10-4
Quality Wins - vs. Winona State (22-5), @ St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Augustana (16-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Northern State (13-10), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. San Francisco State-N (13-9)
Notable Losses - @ Winona State (22-5), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - W @ #9 Upper Iowa (16-9) 67-54, L @ #1 Winona State (22-5) 65-54
TW - 2/22 vs. Sioux Falls (7-13), 2/23 vs. #11 SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Analysis - For the first time since I've been doing the power rankings, the Mavericks have fallen out of the #1 spot. Of course the biggest reason why is that loss to Winona State. However, the Mavericks still must be feeling fortunate. They aren't out of #1 by much and due to the challenging weekend WSU has ahead of it, MSU still has an opportunity to reclaim that #1 spot. They still need to take care of business though because SW Minnesota State has a knack for challenging MSU and Sioux Falls might not exactly be a gimme either.

3. St. Cloud State - 19-5 (17-5 D2)
LW - 4 (+1)
Massey - 13
Wilson - 14
SOS - 31
Record vs. .500+ - 8-4
Quality Wins - @ Florida Southern (18-3), vs. Winona State (22-5) @ Northern State (13-10), vs. Northern State (13-10),@ SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9) @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (9-13)
LW - W vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10) 75-67, W vs. Northern State (13-10) 78-62
TW - 2/22 @ UM-Crookston (0-20), 2/23 @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Analysis - I'm not sure what it is about the Huskies, but they sure know how to overcome adversity. A couple weeks ago, they lost Tim Bergstrasser to a knee injury and pulled out a major upset over Winona State. This week, it appears they lost Theo Rothstein to a knee injury and they came out and shelled Northern State in order to win the NSIC North Division. In comparison to a lot of the teams in the top 10 this week, they have a relatively easy finish to their regular season with road games at UM-Crookston and Bemidji State. Of course, the BSU game won't be a walk in the park but I'm sure they'll take it over going somewhere like MSU, WSU, or Augie.

4. Augustana - 18-6 (16-6 D2)
LW - 3 (-1)
Massey - 18
Wilson - 16
SOS - 33
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), @ Northern State (13-10), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. Wayne State (14-10)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ Wayne State (14-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (7-13)
LW - L @ Sioux Falls (7-13) 70-58, W @ #12 SW Minnesota State (15-11) 92-82
TW - 2/22 vs. #9 Upper Iowa (16-9), 2/23 vs. #1 Winona State (22-5)
Analysis - It was a bit of a bizarre week for Augie, much like it was for a lot of teams in the NSIC. They got stunned against Sioux Falls, a road game you can hardly call a road game...and then came out and played a great game against SW Minnesota State. However, Augie will face their most challenging home stand of the season when Winona State and Upper Iowa come to Sioux Falls. I'm sure Vikings fans are glad it's at home considering their 12-1 home mark.

5. Central Missouri - 17-6 (14-6 D2)
LW - 6 (+1)
Massey - 40
Wilson - 31
SOS - 100
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa-N (16-9), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Lindenwood (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith-N (13-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Dixie State-N (17-4), vs. SW Minnesota State-N (15-11), @ Lindenwood (12-7), @ Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (8-12)
LW - W vs. Lindenwood (12-7) 87-72, W vs. Lincoln (3-20) 93-61
TW - 2/23 @ SW Baptist (8-15)
Analysis - There's no place like Warrensburg for the Mules. After their 1-3 road stand, they had an impressive 2-0 home stand to bounce back from that rough two week stretch. To add compliment to their recovery, they only play one game this week against a mediocre SW Baptist team. I'm getting the impression that this is the week Central Missouri separates itself from the MIAA pack.

6. Fort Hays State - 17-6 (13-6 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 39
Wilson - 35
SOS - 111
Record vs. .500+ - 4-6
Quality Wins - vs. Central Missouri (14-6), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), vs. Washburn (13-6), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - W @ NW Missouri State (13-8) 64-60, W @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-13) 82-70
TW - 2/23 @ #8 Washburn (13-6)
Analysis - I'm sure this one might be a head-scratcher for some people. Mostly because they made the jump from 18th to 6th. Trust me, I too am wondering what happened outside of winning twice. Last week, their ratings were kinda dismal and this week I check back they are solid. I'll believe this week's was a little more accurate considering their resume. Nevertheless, it'll be an interesting week for the Tigers since they need to travel to Washburn this week. If they can get a win in that game, they'll have a solid chance at winning the MIAA.

7. Northeastern State - 17-7 (15-7 D2)
LW - 8 (+1)
Massey - 52
Wilson - 38
SOS - 121
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - vs. Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Washburn (13-6), vs. Arkansas Tech (13-8), @ NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-7), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (12-7)
Bad Losses - @ SW Baptist (8-15), vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-13)
LW - W vs. Missouri Southern (8-12) 77-73, L @ #14 Pittsburg State (12-7) 89-59
TW - 2/23 @ Emporia State (9-11)
Analysis - Okay, I take back what I said about Fort Hays State being head-scratching. The Riverhawks performance this week was head-scratching. They had an AWFUL week, squeaking out an OT home win over Missouri Southern and then getting bombshelled by Pittsburg State. If I were a NE State fan, I would not be feeling very good about my team's late season performance. If they play like this at Emporia State this week, they will lose, especially considering how tough Emporia State is at home.

8. Washburn - 16-6 (13-6 D2)
LW - 9 (+1)
Massey - 42
Wilson - 44
SOS - 87
Record vs. .500+ - 4-4
Quality Wins - vs. St. Mary's (15-6), @ Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Western (8-12), vs. Truman State (6-12)
LW - W @ Missouri Western (8-12) 56-52, L @ #13 NW Missouri State (13-8) 63-61
TW - 2/21 vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-13), 2/23 vs. #6 Fort Hays State (13-6)
Analysis - Good news for the Ichabods is they avenged that bad loss they had at home to Missouri Western. Although the bad news is they couldn't get a sweep of NW Missouri State even though they had their chances. I'm sure Washburn fans must be looking forward to this week though considering the Saturday matchup the Ichabods have. That Fort Hays State game could be the game that throws Washburn right back into the MIAA championship hunt.

9. Upper Iowa - 17-9 (16-9 D2)
LW - 6 (-3)
Massey - 37
Wilson - 29
SOS - 17
Record vs. .500+ - 6-8
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ St. Cloud State (17-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Winona State (21-4), vs. Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Central Missouri-N (14-6), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Northern State (13-10), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Bad Losses - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - L vs. #2 Minnesota State (18-4) 67-54, L vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14) 69-67
TW - 2/22 @ #4 Augustana (16-6), 2/23 @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
Analysis - It's a sink-or-swim stretch for the Peacocks. As expected, Minnesota State came back at them to avenge a home loss to handle Upper Iowa on their own home court. However, to make matters worse, the Peacocks couldn't finish off a Concordia-St. Paul team that's been an absolute buzz saw of late. Considering the circumstances, that might've been a must-win game, because the Peacocks face one of their most challenging road trips yet with trips to Wayne and Augie to close out the year.

10. Arkansas Tech - 14-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 15 (+5)
Massey - 54
Wilson - 38
SOS - 36
Record vs. .500+ - 7-7
Quality Wins - @ Midwestern State (15-6), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Missouri-St. Louis-N (13-8), vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-10), vs. SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ NW Oklahoma State (12-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-7), @ Drury (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), @ Ouachita Baptist (11-9), @ Southern Nazarene (10-10), @ SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Southern (8-12)
LW - W vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9) 52-50, W @ Henderson State (9-10) 70-68
TW - 2/21 vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-8), 2/23 @ Southern Arkansas (5-13)
Analysis - Anyone surprised? I'm sure some people might've guessed Harding or SW Minnesota State or Pittsburg State, but no. I decided to go with Arkansas Tech. They're on quite a roll, winning four straight games. They've taken over the GAC conference lead due to a four game losing streak by Harding as well. We'll see if the Wonder Boys can keep me wondering about their regional chances. They have a tough home game against Arkansas-Monticello before hitting the road to play a weak Southern Arkansas team.

Honorable Mention

11. SW Minnesota State - 15-12 (15-11 D2)
LW - 11 (-)
Massey - 44
Wilson - 38
SOS - 1
Record vs. .500+ - 8-10
Quality Wins - vs. Grand Canyon-N (17-5), vs. Central Missouri-N (14-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), @ Northern State (13-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (13-8)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), vs. Winona State (22-5), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Michigan Tech (16-7), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills-N (13-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (6-12)
LW - W vs. #15 Wayne State (14-10) 87-69, L vs. #4 Augustana (16-6) 92-82
TW - 2/22 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-14), 2/23 @ #2 Minnesota State (18-4)
Analysis - The Mustangs just cannot seem to pull together a complete weekend. They had a magnificent home performance against a red-hot Wayne State team and then they cannot pull out an almost necessary home win against Augustana. It just keeps feeling like SMSU let's golden opportunity after golden opportunity slip right through their fingers. This week will be a very trying one for SMSU. They're playing a blazing Concordia-St. Paul team and a very tough Minnesota State team on the road this week. If SMSU isn't careful, they could be facing an 0-2 week ahead of them.

12. Harding - 17-7 (15-7 D2)
LW - 5 (-7)
Massey - 77
Wilson - 37
SOS - 139
Record vs. .500+ - 10-3
Quality Wins - vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State-N (13-8), vs. Arkansas Tech (13-8), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9), vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-8), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-10), @ Christian Brothers (13-7), vs. Christian Brothers (11-7)
Notable Losses - @ SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9), Ouachita Baptist (11-9)
Bad Losses - @ East Central (6-11), @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-13), vs. Henderson State (9-10)
LW - L vs. Henderson State (9-10) 70-68, L @ Ouachita Baptist (11-9) 60-56
TW - 2/21 vs. Southern Arkansas (5-13), 2/23 @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
Analysis - I don't think "meltdown" even begins to describe the position the Bison are in right now. Just two weeks ago, this team had a three game lead over Arkansas Tech for the GAC lead. Now they're trailing by a game with a challenging two weeks ahead of them. At least Harding might be able to snap their four game losing streak with a home game against Southern Arkansas. However, they face road challenges at Arkansas-Monticello and Arkansas Tech after that. These are dreaded times for a Bison fan.

13. NW Missouri State - 16-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 12 (-1)
Massey - 69
Wilson - 53
SOS - 78
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Washburn (13-6), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (12-7), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), vs. Harding-N (15-7), @ Washburn (13-6), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ Fort Hays State (13-6)
Bad Losses - vs. St. Edward's-N (12-13), @ Missouri Western (8-12), vs. Lincoln (3-20)
LW - L vs. #6 Fort Hays State (13-6) 64-60, W vs. #8 Washburn (13-6) 63-61
TW - 2/20 vs. Missouri Western (8-12)
Analysis - NWMSU's chances at winning the MIAA aren't very likely at this point. They really needed a home win against Fort Hays State in order to keep within distance but they're now two games back with only three to play. HOWEVER, the Bearcats I'm sure are thrilled about their late season schedule. They have three games, two of which at home, that are against sub-.500 teams. I know you can't overlook anyone in the MIAA, but if they can finish regular season MIAA play at 16-8, their regional chances should be at least decent. They might need a few MIAA tourney wins though to help.

14. Pittsburg State - 15-7 (12-7 D2)
LW - 13 (-1)
Massey - 67
Wilson - 52
SOS - 95
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Dixie State-N (17-4), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith (13-9), vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Newman (17-4), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Washburn (13-6)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (6-12), vs. SW Baptist (8-15)
LW - W vs. #7 Northeastern State (15-7) 89-59
TW - 2/20 @ Emporia State (9-11), 2/23 @ Cen
tral Oklahoma (10-9)
Analysis - Wow, can someone ask if the Gorillas came out angry this week? After a humiliating home loss to SW Baptist, they punched a very good Northeastern State team right in the mouth with a 30 point fist. Was perhaps that SW Baptist game the start of the PSU's run? It's hard to say since it's just one game. However, it was almost as flawless of a game as you could get. It'll be an interesting pair of road games for the Gorillas this week. We'll see if they can keep that intensity up on the road.

15. Wayne State - 16-10 (14-10 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 55
Wilson - 66
SOS - 52
Record vs. .500+ - 4-8
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (16-6), @ Northern State (13-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (9-13), @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-14)
LW - L @ #11 SW Minnesota State (15-11) 87-69, W @ Sioux Falls (7-13) 77-57
TW - 2/22 vs. #1 Winona State (22-5), 2/23 vs. #9 Upper Iowa (16-7)
Analysis - I think inconsistent would be a pretty good way to describe Wayne State's performance last week. An 18 point loss at SMSU followed up by a 20 point win against Sioux Falls is bizarre to say the least. Especially when the results flip flopped on the Augie side of things. It'll be interesting to see if the Wildcats can keep in the hunt though. They have two very tough home games against Winona State and Upper Iowa this week. This will either be the week that breaks the Wildcats or puts them into contention for a regional spot.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Adam Stanek's Central Region Power Rankings (2/10/13)

Top Ten

1. Minnesota State - 19-3 (17-3 D2)
LW - 1 (-)
Massey - 6
Wilson - 5
SOS - 28
Record vs. .500+ - 9-3
Quality Wins - vs. Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. San Francisco State-N (13-7)
Notable Losses - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Bemidji State (12-11) 82-74, 2/9 - W vs. UM-Crookston (0-18) 93-55
TW - 2/15 - @ #6 Upper Iowa (16-7), 2/16 - @ #2 Winona State (21-4)
Analysis - While by my criteria that it's a notable loss, in hindsight it's a bad loss for the Mavericks. With WSU playing at St. Cloud, they had a golden opportunity to stretch their #1 seed lead. Now it's in more danger than ever. With road games against Upper Iowa and Winona State this week, the Mavericks, for the first time I started doing these Power Rankings, are in danger of dropping out of the #1 spot.

2. Winona State - 21-4 (21-4 D2)
LW - 2 (-)
Massey - 5
Wilson - 4
SOS - 2
Record vs. .500+ - 12-4
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), @ Ferris State (11-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Metro State (19-0), @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ St. Cloud State (15-5)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 79-78, 2/9 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 89-73
TW - 2/15 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14), 2/16 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3)
Analysis - Much like MSU, Winona State had a golden opportunity to steal the #1 spot this week with a win at St. Cloud State. Unfortunately, a 14-2 run by the Huskies to open up the 2nd half and strong play by SCSU prevented WSU from catching up and getting a win in St. Cloud. Still, the Warriors with a little luck still have a good chance to get the #1 spot. They'll be hosting the #1 team this week in what is one of the most #1 vs. #2 matchups we've seen in quite some time within the region.

3. Augustana - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 4 (+1)
Massey - 17
Wilson - 16
SOS - 39
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Wayne State (13-9), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 79-62, 2/9 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12), 2/16 - @ #11 SW Minnesota State (14-10)
Analysis - Considering the Vikings had two tough road games this week, a split didn't hurt them this week, in fact, it actually helped. It was surprising to see how much the Dragons dominated the Vikings last Friday. However, they battled back and played a strong game at Northern State, who was in a must win game in their own right. Still, this four game road stand is far from over, and with USF playing well and a tough game at SW Minnesota State, another split could be dangerous for the Vikings going into the last week of the season.

4. St. Cloud State - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 5 (+1)
Massey - 14
Wilson - 20
SOS - 38
Record vs. .500+ - 6-4
Quality Wins - @ Florida Southern (17-2), vs. Winona State (21-4) @ Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7) @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #2 Winona State (21-4) 79-78, 2/9 - L vs. #10 Upper Iowa (16-7) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #16 MSU-Moorhead (12-8), 2/16 - vs. #10 Northern State (13-8)
Analysis - What a helter-skelter week for SCSU. They came out and played a terrific game against Winona State. I even said to Husky at the game that the one thing that scares me about the Huskies was their guard speed, which they used to their advantage against WSU. They also played a great first half against Upper Iowa, looking like they were going to cruise to an impressive 2-0 week. That didn't happen as Upper Iowa punched the Huskies in the mouth in the 2nd half, and stole another impressive road win on a game-winning shot. Still, SCSU played better than they did the week before and will need to keep it up this week. Home games against desperate MSU-Moorhead and Northern State teams looms.

5. Harding - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 3 (-2)
Massey - 49
Wilson - 25
SOS - 142
Record vs. .500+ - 10-3
Quality Wins - vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State-N (12-7), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-7), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ Christian Brothers (11-7), vs. Christian Brothers (11-7)
Notable Losses - @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - @ East Central (6-11), @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11)
LW - 2/7 - L @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 80-61, 2/9 - L @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 71-60
TW - 2/14 - vs. Henderson State (8-10), 2/16 - @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8)
Analysis - Reality might be starting to sink in for the Bison. They just aren't that good of a road team. While they post a 12-0 record at home, they are 4-4 on the road and 1-1 in neutral site games. A 1-2 road stand the past two weeks doesn't bode well for Harding. They luckily do get a home game this week, but a road game at Ouachita Baptist has to be concerning to a team that's having a hard time winning away from Searcy.

6. Upper Iowa - 17-7 (16-7 D2)
LW - 10 (+4)
Massey - 26
Wilson - 24
M-SOS - 24
Record vs. .500+ - 6-7
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Winona State (21-4), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 70-69, 2/9 - W @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3), 2/16 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
Analysis - That's just how close the region is. A week where if you win twice can propel you up four spots. Upper Iowa escaped Duluth with a one point win which could've easily been a horrible loss for the Peacocks. They then backed it up with a statement win against St. Cloud State on yet another game-winning shot. I find it impressive that the Peacocks have road wins against three of the top four teams in the league and will have an opportunity for all four in a few weeks. Still, this week is an important one for Upper Iowa. It's their last home weekend of the year until conference tourney time and they've got a big Friday night game against MSU.

7. Central Missouri - 15-6 (12-6 D2)
LW - 6 (-1)
Massey - 37
Wilson - 39
SOS - 81
Record vs. .500+ - 5-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa-N (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith-N (11-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. SW Minnesota State-N (14-10), @ Lindenwood (11-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - L @ Central Oklahoma (9-9) 69-67, 2/9 - L @ Missouri Southern (8-10) 93-81
TW - 2/13 - vs. #14 Lindenwood (11-6), 2/16 - vs. Lincoln (3-19)
Analysis - My, how things have turned south for the Mules in a hurry. Two weeks ago, UCM was riding high and had a two game lead on everyone in the MIAA. Now, three straight losses has Central Missouri in a tie for first place with Fort Hays State and with 7 teams within a game of each other for first place in the MIAA, up for grabs is an understatement. Fortunately for the Mules though, they get two home games this week, and with a 10-0 home mark, home sweet home has never sounded sweeter.

8. Northeastern State - 16-6 (14-6 D2)
LW - 7 (-1)
Massey - 45
Wilson - 37
SOS - 120
Record vs. .500+ - 7-4
Quality Wins - vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6)
Bad Losses - @ SW Baptist (8-13), vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
LW - 2/7 - L vs. Lindenwood (10-6) 78-66, 2/9 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 72-56
TW - 2/13 - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10), 2/16 - @ #13 Pittsburg State (11-7)
Analysis - It was pretty close between Central Missouri and Northeastern State for the #7 spot, but due to UCM's SOS and head-to-head win over Northeastern, I gave them the edge. Considering the way things are going, the Riverhawks should feel a little relieved with a split. I'm sure they wish they had played better with a home game against Lindenwood, but it's not like Lindenwood isn't a hot team at the moment. However, these next two weeks are crucial for Northeastern. They have two tough road games in the final two weeks and they might need to win one of them to have any shot at a MIAA title.

9. Washburn - 15-5 (12-5 D2)
LW - 11 (+2)
Massey - 42
Wilson - 39
SOS - 99
Record vs. .500+ - 4-3
Quality Wins - vs. St. Mary's (13-6), @ Fort Hays State (1-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Truman State (5-12)
LW - 2/6 - L vs. Missouri Western (7-11) 79-74, 2/9 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - @ Missouri Western (7-11), 2/16 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7)
Analysis - Before I get someone telling me, "hey, wait a minute", no that's not a mistake. Washburn plays the same teams this week as they played last week. Although, I'm sure the Ichabods are going to be hoping for a different result in the Missouri Western game. It's head scratching that they lost that game. Apparently they took that frustration out on NW Missouri State. The game itself wasn't nearly as close as the 80-67 final score. Washburn dominated the Bearcats from start to finish. While I'm sure Washburn will gladly accept rematches, I'm sure they'd rather not play them on the road.

10. Northern State - 17-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 8 (-2)
Massey - 43
Wilson - 48
SOS - 56
Record vs. .500+ - 6-8
Quality Wins - @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills (11-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 70-67, 2/9 - L vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17), 2/16 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5)
Analysis - The Wolves can't be happy with the way they are playing right now. They've lost three of their last four and have played far from their best basketball in those four games. On top of that, they really should've beat Wayne State on Friday night, letting the Wildcats come back from a big deficit to get the win. Needless to say, the Wolves regional chances suffered a minor blow with this two game sweep. Fortunately for them, they have an opportunity ahead of them. Three of their final four games are against very winnable opponents and the one tough game they have left on the docket is a golden opportunity for them to extract some revenge on the Huskies.

Honorable Mention

11. SW Minnesota State - 14-11 (14-10 D2)
LW - 12 (+1)
Massey - 40
Wilson - 44
SOS - 1
Record vs. .500+ - 8-9
Quality Wins - vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Michigan Tech (15-6), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (4-12)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. U-Mary (2-18) 77-64, 2/9 - W vs. Minot State (7-13) 78-68
TW - 2/15 - vs. #17 Wayne State (13-9), 2/16 - vs. #3 Augustana (15-5)
Analysis - I'm sure the Mustangs must be feeling pretty good to FINALLY have a soft spot in their best schedule in the nation to get a few wins. They must also be feeling good because no one is running away from them in the Regional standings. They are looking a big week in the eye though. Home games against Wayne State and Augustana are a golden opportunity. They have the opportunity to get two big quality victories and climb up the Regional ranks. If all goes well, they might be back in the top 10 this week. I bet that's something Mustangs fans never would've thought two weeks ago.

12. NW Missouri State - 15-7 (12-7 D2)
LW - 9 (-3)
Massey - 68
Wilson - 58
SOS - 85
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Harding-N (15-5), @ Washburn (12-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Lincoln (3-19)
LW - 2/6 - L @ Fort Hays State (11-6) 59-58, 2/9 - L @ #11 Washburn (12-5) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - vs. #18 Fort Hays State (11-6), 2/16 - vs. #9 Washburn (12-5)
Analysis - It's almost hard to believe that the Bearcats have played 3 one-point games this year. Unfortunately for them, they ended up on the losing end of one last week at Fort Hays State. I bet they wish they could say the same thing about the Washburn game though. They were never really in that game. Fortunately, they get rematches this week on their home court. They've been pretty solid on their home court this year, but with the way they are playing, I'm not the most optimistic about them coming away with two wins this week. A split? Maybe...

13. Pittsburg State - 14-7 (11-7 D2)
LW - 12 (-1)
Massey - 82
Wilson - 64
SOS - 95
Record vs. .500+ - 5-5
Quality Wins - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith (11-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Newman (15-4), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), @ Washburn (12-5)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (6-10), vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
LW - 2/7 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 79-75, 2/9 - L vs. SW Baptist (8-13) 81-75
TW - 2/16 - vs. #8 Northeastern State (14-6)
Analysis - What a horrific week for the Gorillas. They escaped with a home win against Truman State and then managed to lose a bad one at home against Southwest Baptist. They had a huge lead in that one and let it slip away. It comes at a horrible time as well. The one thing I will say though is I wouldn't be looking forward to this game if I were Northeastern State because Pittsburg has a whole week to prepare for them and you know they'll still have a sour taste in their mouths after that loss.

14. Lindenwood - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - 14 (-)
Massey - 52
Wilson - 73
SOS - 150
Record vs. .500+ - 4-4
Quality Wins - @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Central Missouri (12-6) @ Maryville (17-6), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6)
Notable Losses - @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - @ Quincy (8-10), @ Emporia State (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ Northeastern State (14-6) 78-66, 2/9 - L @ Emporia State (8-10) 61-52

TW - 2/13 @ #7 Central Missouri (12-6), 2/16 - vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
Analysis - I did wonder a little bit about how the Lions would fare with their schedule. Starting last week, six of their final seven games are on the road. When they went into Northeastern and beat them as badly as they did, I was honestly stunned. I thought perhaps this team isn't only hot, they are hot enough to beat even the best of the MIAA on the road...and then they lost at Emporia State. I can't be too critical of them because Emporia State is a tough home team, but at the same time, that's one of the road games they HAVE to win. They have a much tougher road test this week when they have to play in Warrensburg. I guess if there's anything fortunate about that game, they don't play a single team with a winning record after that.

15. Arkansas Tech - 12-8 (11-8 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 89
Wilson - 56
SOS - 35
Record vs. .500+ - 6-7
Quality Wins - @ Midwestern State (14-5), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Missouri-St. Louis-N (12-7), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Drury (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 60-57, 2/9 - W @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 60-51
TW - 2/14 - vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), 2/16 - @ Henderson State (8-10)
Anaylsis - I think the best way to describe the Wonder Boys at this point is they are revitalized. They just got two big road wins and top that off with two Harding losses, they are now only a game back of Harding in the GAC. They also have a home meeting with Harding in a few weeks so I'm sure Arkansas Tech is looking forward to it. Although, they shouldn't look too far forward. They play in an anybody beats anybody league, and overlooking Ouachita or Henderson could be dangerous.

16. MSU-Moorhead - 16-8 (12-8 D2)
LW - 15 (-1)
Massey - 50
Wilson - 61
SOS - 65
Record vs. .500+ - 3-8
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 79-62, 2/9 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5), 2/16 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17)
Analysis - I think we can finally safely say it...MSU-Moorhead FINALLY beat a high quality opponent. Since their SCSU win, it's been practically impossible for them to get a big win. In fact, it looked like they were on their way to getting two this week...until they blew a big lead against Wayne State. It's been the story of the Dragons year. They just don't fare well against quality competition. They do have an opportunity to try and improve upon that and get a sweep of St. Cloud...it's a win they desperately need if they want to get back into the regional running.

17. Wayne State - 15-9 (13-9 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 77
Wilson - 67
SOS - 64
Record vs. .500+ - 4-6
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - 2/8 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 70-67, 2/9 - W @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), 2/16 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12)
Analysis - The Wildcats run last week was downright magical. They were down double digits at Northern State and came back to win. They were down by 20 to MSU-Moorhead and came back to win. It's hard to believe that a Wayne State team of this caliber was able to do that on the road back-to-back nights against two pretty good teams. My biggest question is, can they keep it up? They've got two more tough road games this week at SW Minnesota State and a Sioux Falls team that's starting to play some pretty good basketball.

18. Fort Hays State - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 55
Wilson - 51
SOS - 118
Record vs. .500+ - 2-6
Quality Wins - vs. Central Missouri (12-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Washburn (12-5), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/6 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 59-58, 2/9 - W vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12) 94-68
TW - 2/13 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7), 2/16 - @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
Analysis - It's almost unfathomable that the team I have rated 18th in the Region is in a position to win the MIAA. Although, they have two pretty tough road games to worry about in the next three weeks. One of them being a rematch against NW Missouri State, in which they escaped with a one-point win at home. I'm sure the Bearcats will be licking their chops for this game. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, because Fort Hays State doesn't have a real strong SOS and I'm wondering if some of these tough road games coming up will be too much for them.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Adam Stanek's NSIC Power Rankings (Jan. 21, 2010)

Hey guys, sorry about not getting this up yesterday. The last few days have been pretty brutal. I'm not sure why but I have a feeling that my rankings this week are going to aggravate a few people. Let me remind you guys what the "criteria" is for my power rankings just so you guys have a feeling of how it works...

1. Overall body of work
2. SOS
3. Head-to-head
4. How they've played lately

I'm giving you guys this list so I don't get any, "Hey, how come this team is ranked below this team?!" sort of stuff. With no further ado, here are this week's rankings...

1. MSU-Mankato 13-2 (12-2 D2, 9-2 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ Northern State 91-73
LG - L @ U-Mary 84-69
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Bemidji State (7-8), Jan. 22 vs. UM-Duluth (7-8)
Note - I know I might catch some flack here for ranking MSU-Mankato first still, even after getting dismantled against Mary, but like I mentioned earlier, I need to measure the entire body of work. Right now, no one in the NSIC has a stronger body of work than MSU-Mankato and even they should be allowed to play one bad game once in a while. Mary snapped a six-game winning streak, something that's pretty astonishing in the NSIC this year. The Mavericks really shouldn't be ashamed to lose to Mary but as noted by Coach Margenthaler, they should be disappointed with the lack of effort and intensity they brought forth into this game. I have a feeling the Mavericks will bounce back this weekend when the Beavers and Bulldogs come to town. The Beavers could give MSU a run for their money but considering how the Bulldogs are playing, it could be an easy win on Saturday.

2. Winona State 12-3 (9-3 D2, 8-3 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W vs. UM-Crookston 108-68
LG - L vs. MSU-Moorhead 95-87
UG - Jan. 21 @ Wayne State (9-6), Jan. 22 @ Augustana (10-5)
Note - This is another spot where I think I'll catch some flack for not putting Mary but there are reasons why. For one, my main criteria is overall body of work. WSU's overall body of work is slightly better than Mary's (even though Mary did beat MSU). The other would be WSU also beat Mary head-to-head three weeks ago. It's sort of a vicious circle anyway considering MSU > WSU > Mary > MSU. If you really think about it, WSU really only played one bad half against Moorhead. Yes, it was a REALLY bad half...the worst I've ever seen in my six years of watching WSU basketball. However, they did make a nice effort in the second half to at least make the game interesting. However, this should be WSU's warning though...if they play like that for even a half against Augie or Wayne, they will lose.

3. U-Mary 12-4 (12-4 D2, 8-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 5-0
PG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 60-48
LG - W vs. MSU-Mankato 84-69
UG - Jan. 22 @ Northern State (7-9)
Note - Boy, I tell you what, I was "" this close to putting Mary in the #2 spot. I was so unimpressed with WSU and impressed with Mary that it certainly did contemplate it. However, after looking at the whole body of work, I decided to go with WSU but just barely. Anthony Moody is just unreal. He scored 49 points this weekend, including 31 points against one of the top teams in the region. Although, my one observation is Moody is the player making this team go. Even on nights where he scores a lot, if the rest of the team isn't stepping up, there's a good chance Mary loses. However, with the way Mary is playing right now as a team, I don't think they have anything to worry about and even though they have a road game this weekend, I don't wonder what will happen when the league's best defense meets the league's worst defense. It might be awful to watch if you're a Northern State fan...

4. Augustana 10-5 (7-4 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ UM-Duluth 76-49
LG - W @ Wayne State 79-76 (2OT)
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Upper Iowa (5-10), Jan. 22 vs. Winona State (12-3)
Note - Uh oh, don't look now but it looks like the Vikings have found their sea legs at last (*smacks forehead*). Granted, their win in Wayne came a little harder than they would've liked. Still, winning in that environment is huge, even if it takes double overtime to do it. Granted, it took a young freshman in Yuriy Malashenko to get it to OT with a three-point shot with three seconds left to tie the game, but you'll take wins however you get them. If there is a concern for the Vikings though, it would be turnovers. You can't afford to turn the ball over 22 times and expect to win many ball games. Fortunately, the Vikings forced 19 WSC turnovers so they were able to keep in the game. If they turn the ball over that much against WSU, they could be in trouble.

5. Concordia-St. Paul 10-5 (8-4 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W vs. UM-Duluth 77-64
LG - W vs. Bemidji State 79-73
UG - Jan. 21 @ MSU-Moorhead (9-6), Jan. 22 @ UM-Crookston (6-9)
Note - The Golden Bears continue to surprise me and many others in the NSIC with how they are playing. I'm sure not many thought they'd have 10 wins at this point in the season but alas, they do and they are looking like an NSIC tournament team with how they are rolling. The good news for Concordia is big man Brent Barz is finally starting to find a rhythm. He scored 41 points this weekend in two games. If he can continue to put up big numbers, it'll take less pressure off of guys like the Olafeso brothers and Isiah Thomas. Lately the Golden Bears have been starting Andrew Kuderer instead of Courtney Tyler and it seems to be helping. Barz is getting hot at the right time because he'll be up against a mighty big dragon in Alex Novak this weekend.

6. St. Cloud State 8-7 (7-6 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (+1)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W vs. Bemidji State 92-88 (OT)
LG - W vs. UM-Duluth 94-74
UG - Jan. 21 @ UM-Crookston (6-9), Jan. 22 @ MSU-Moorhead (9-6)
Note - I want to know how many NSIC teams can claim they scored 90+ points in three consecutive games? The answer...one. It's St. Cloud State and I can honestly say, they are getting hot at the right time. Taylor Witt was in absolute beast mode over the weekend scoring 31 points, dishing out 12 assists and gathered nine steals in two games. It's incredible that he stole the ball seven times against UM-Duluth, but then again, it doesn't surprise me THAT much. When I saw SCSU was up by 29 at halftime, I didn't have any doubts about this one. With the way the Huskies are scoring, I can definitely see them making it five in a row...UM-Crookston just gave up 108 to WSU this past weekend and the Dragons don't exactly have an outstanding defense by any means. Although, I'm sure the Huskies are worried more about "winning" than getting 90 points.

7. Wayne State 9-6 (6-6 D2, 5-6 NSIC) (-1)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ Bemidji State 63-53
LG - L vs. Augustana 79-76
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Winona State (12-3), Jan. 22 vs. Upper Iowa (5-10)
Note - This was a spot that had me contemplating MSU-Moorhead but in the end, I decided to stick with the Wildcats. Reasons being is that even though they have the same record, Wayne State won a head-to-head against them and I also believe there shouldn't be any shame in losing to Augustana by three points in double overtime. Wayne State gets a dandy Friday night as Winona State comes to town and it'll be interesting to see the point guard matchup between Amry Shelby and Ben Fischer. Two are arguably all-NSIC performers. Will Shelby's offensive abilities pull through or will Fischer's lockdown defensive abilities keep him in check? We shall see...

8. MSU-Moorhead 9-6 (6-5 D2, 6-5 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L @ Upper Iowa 66-54
LG - W @ Winona State 95-87
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Concordia-St. Paul (10-5), Jan. 22 vs. St. Cloud State (8-7)
Note - Man, I just can't understand this MSU-Moorhead team. How do you lose at Upper Iowa and then pull off a win in Winona after getting a 22 point lead at halftime against Winona State? My only answer is when the Dragons are hot, they just can't be stopped...the only thing you can do is try and outscore them when the shots are dropping in the net for this team. They shot 34% against Upper Iowa...they shot 58% against Winona State. What a difference a day makes, huh? Compound the fact that they got 15 offensive rebounds against WSU and well...you catch my drift. If MSU-Moorhead can continue to play with passion and consistency, I think they'll be a really tough team in the NSIC and a tough out in the NSIC tourney. Although, they'll need to somehow pull through this weekend to even think about it...they've got two tough opponents this weekend.

9. Bemidji State 7-8 (4-8 D2, 4-7 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ St. Cloud State 92-88 (OT)
LG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 79-73
UG - Jan. 21 @ MSU-Mankato (13-2), Jan. 22 @ SW Minnesota State (6-9)
Note - I tell you what, the NSIC can be pretty unforgiving at times. Put this in perspective, after Friday night's game, the Beavers last five games would be against Augustana (10-5), Wayne State (9-6), St. Cloud State (8-7), Concordia-St. Paul (10-5) and MSU-Mankato (13-2). The records of those opponents are 50-25 (.666). That's a brutal stretch! It's hard to fault them with how they played at St. Cloud too because I'll be honest, that was one of the most exciting NSIC basketball games I watched all season. My feeling with the Beavers is, they are "close" but they aren't quite there yet as far as being a solid NSIC team. The pieces are coming together and they are playing solid NSIC teams tough but they are having a hard time pulling out wins. Their only win in that stretch is against a Wayne State team that's reeling a little bit. If the Beavers play with as much energy as they did against SCSU, I think they have a shot to win at MSU but that's a lot to ask for.

10. UM-Duluth 7-8 (5-8 D2, 5-6 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 0-5
PG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 77-64
LG - L @ St. Cloud State 94-74
UG - Jan. 21 @ SW Minnesota State (6-9), Jan. 22 @ MSU-Mankato (13-2)
Note - I'll be honest...I think 10-14 are all pretty even. Being the #10 team in the NSIC really doesn't have many (if not, any) bragging rights over the #14 team in the NSIC. The way the Bulldogs are playing right now, I wouldn't say they are the tenth best team in the NSIC. However, since no one will step up and take this spot from UMD, I guess I'll just leave it with them. It's amazing how a team can suddenly go 5-0 to 0-6 in a matter of weeks is amazing to me. What happened? Granted, I didn't expect them to get a win this weekend but they looked more abysmal than usual. Ryan Rasmussen, who was putting up monster numbers had a weekend to forget scoring 19 points on 7-of-23 shooting in two games. I guess if there's any good news for the Bulldogs, they'll be playing a team that's struggling just as much as they are in SMSU. Granted, the game is on the road so it won't be an easy one for the Bulldogs.

11. Upper Iowa 5-10 (4-9 D2, 4-7 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 1-4
PG - W vs. MSU-Moorhead 66-54
LG - L vs. UM-Crookston 73-66 (OT)
UG - Jan. 21 @ Augustana (10-5), Jan. 22 @ Wayne State (9-6)
Note - Question Peacocks...how the hell do you beat MSU-Moorhead and then lose to UM-Crookston? Are you just one of those teams that plays up and down to your competition? I just about did a back flip in surprise of hearing the Peacocks lost to Crookston. Then again, I think Upper Iowa contracted the same thing WSU had...they only scored 23 points in the first half and had to make a nice rally just to force OT. This was a bitter one for Upper Iowa to swallow because it won't get any easier when they have to travel to Sioux Falls and Wayne this weekend.

12. Northern State 7-9 (3-9 D2, 3-9 NSIC) (+1)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L vs. MSU-Mankato 91-73
LG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 78-70
UG - Jan. 22 vs. U-Mary
Note - Well, there is one nice thing I can say about Northern State...they are finally starting to play some better basketball. It's still not that great but they are slowly starting to climb out of the proverbial NSIC cellar. The 18-point loss to MSU was expected but I don't think many were expecting them to get a win against SMSU, especially considering how tough they played Mary the night before. However, the Wolves have played well in three of their last four games and are looking to get a few more NSIC wins. However, I can't see them getting one this weekend when their travel partner in Mary comes to town.

13. SW Minnesota State 6-9 (5-8 D2, 3-8 NSIC) (-1)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L @ U-Mary 60-48
LG - L @ Northern State 78-70
UG - Jan. 21 vs. UM-Duluth (7-8), Jan. 22 vs. Bemidji State (7-8)
Note - If you would've told me SMSU would be one of the bottom three teams in the NSIC in late January, I would've told you to start watching basketball because they are one of the top half teams in the NSIC. Wow, what was I thinking? I thought for sure they were CLEARLY the sixth best team in the NSIC but they aren't even clearly the 13th best team in the NSIC. They've lost four straight and eight of their last nine with their only win coming against Crookston. The question I have to ask is, what does Brad Bigler need to do to figure things out? This team nearly made the NCAA tournament last year...right now, they aren't even on pace to make the NSIC tourney. Now, one thing I have noticed with SMSU the last few years is they tend to start off the season slow. They were 4-8 last year in the NSIC at this time so there is still time for them to make it but they need to start playing great basketball and start playing now. Luckily, they get UMD to start off the weekend.

14. UM-Crookston 6-9 (2-9 D2, 2-9 NSIC) (-)
PG - L @ Winona State 108-68
LG - W @ Upper Iowa 73-66 (OT)
UG - Jan. 21 vs. St. Cloud State (8-7), Jan. 22 vs. Concordia-St. Paul (10-5)
Note - Congrats to the Golden Bears on actually winning a game! After the Wayne State stunner, I didn't know if they'd win another game in the NSIC. This was UM-Crookston's first NSIC road win since December 7th, 2007 when they won against Concordia-St. Paul. I apologize for the sarcastic congratulations but you earned it. Now, I wonder how badly they'll get annihilated this weekend against St. Cloud State and Concordia-St. Paul? I'm guessing they'll need Eric Dearden to go off for them to even stay in the game.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Adam Stanek's Central Region Rankings (Jan. 13, 2010)

I was going to do this toward the end of January, start of February but I decided to get an early start (due to some inspiration from MSUMavMan2009 from the D2Hoops.com message board).

P.S. RPI is total schedule, including DI, DIII and NAIA. It was considered in the making of these rankings but wasn't exactly the deciding factor between teams competing for certain spots.

1. MSU-Mankato 11-1 D2, 8-1 region
RPI: 12
D2 Opponent Record: 55-70 (.440)
In-Region Opponent Record: 45-47 (.489)
Record vs. .500+: 6-0 (1.000)
Quality Wins: @ Winona State (8-2), vs. Michigan Tech (9-3), vs. Augustana (6-4), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4), vs. Wayne State (6-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Notable Losses: None
Bad Losses: @ St. Cloud State (5-6)

2. Fort Lewis 11-2 D2, 11-2 region
RPI: 16
D2 Opponent Record: 70-80 (.466)
In-Region Record: 70-80 (.466)
Record vs. .500+: 4-1 (.800)
Quality Wins: @ Seattle Pacific (8-4), @ Washburn (6-5), vs. Adams State (7-2), vs New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: vs. Mesa State (10-3)
Bad Losses: @ CSU-Pueblo (4-6)

3. Winona State 8-2 D2, 7-2 region
RPI: 22
D2 Opponent Record: 53-54 (.495)
In-Region Opponent Record: 50-47 (.515)
Record vs. .500+: 2-1(.666)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Notable Losses: vs. MSU-Mankato (11-1)
Bad Losses: @ UM-Duluth (5-6)

4. Metro State 9-2 D2, 9-2 region
RPI: 18
D2 Opponent Record: 60-68 (.468)
In-Region Record: 60-68 (.468)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: @ Mesa State (10-3), vs. Colorado Mines (8-2)
Notable Losses: @ Central Washington (9-2), @ New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Bad Losses: None

5. Colorado Mines 8-2 D2, 8-2 region
D2 Opponent Record: 53-63 (.456)
In-Region Record: 53-63 (.456)
Record vs. .500+: 2-1 (.666)
Quality Wins: vs. St. Martin's (10-5), vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: @ Metro State (9-2)
Bad Losses: vs. Western New Mexico (5-8)

6. Adams State 7-2 D2, 7-2 region
RPI: 23
D2 Opponent Record: 53-58 (.477)
In-Region Record: 53-58 (.477)
Record vs. .500+: 1-2 (.333)
Quality Wins: vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: @ Fort Lewis (11-2), vs. Mesa State (10-3)
Bad Losses: None

7. Mesa State 10-3 D2, 10-3 region
RPI: 23
D2 Opponent Record: 68-75 (.475)
In-Region Record: 68-75 (.475)
Record vs. 500+: 4-1 (.800)
Quality Wins: vs. Dixie State (5-4), vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4), @ Fort Lewis (11-2), @ Adams State (7-2)
Notable Losses: @ Metro State (9-2)
Bad Losses: @ Chadron State (4-8), @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-8)

8. New Mexico Highlands 7-4 D2, 6-4 region
RPI: 36
D2 Opponent Record: 69-53 (.565)
In-Region Record: 60-51 (.540)
Record vs. .500+: 2-4 (.333)
Quality Wins: vs. Metro State (9-2), vs. Grand Valley State (9-2)
Notable Losses: @ Mesa State (10-3), @ Colorado Mines (8-2), @ Fort Lewis (11-2), @ Adams State (7-2)
Bad Losses: None

9. Mary 9-4 D2, 8-4 region
RPI: 45
D2 Opponent Record: 58-76 (.432)
In-Region Record: 56-69 (.448)
Record vs. .500+: 1-4 (.200)
Quality Wins: @ MSU-Moorhead
Notable Losses: vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-4), @ Augustana (6-4), @ Wayne State (6-5), @ Winona State (8-2)
Bad Losses: None

10. Augustana 6-4 D2, 6-4 region
RPI: 69
D2 Opponent Record: 53-53 (.500)
In-Region Record: 53-53 (.500)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Notable Losses: @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Bad Losses: @ SW Minnesota State (5-6), @ St. Cloud State (5-6)

Honorable Mentions:

Concordia-St. Paul 6-4 D2, 5-4 region
RPI: 45
D2 Opponent Record: 59-52 (.531)
In-Region Record: 53-45 (.540)
Record vs. .500+: 2-3 (.400)
Quality Wins: @ Mary (9-4), @ Wayne State (6-5)
Notable Losses: vs. MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ Augustana (6-4), @ Winona State (8-2)
Bad Losses: @ Northern State (2-8)

Wayne State 6-5 D2, 6-5 region
RPI: 54
D2 Opponent: 59-61 (.491)
In-Region Record: 59-61 (.491)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), @ MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Notable Losses: @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Bad Losses: @ SW Minnesota State (5-6), @ UM-Crookston (1-8), @ Bemidji State (4-6)

MSU-Moorhead 5-4 D2, 5-4 region
RPI: 90
D2 Opponent: 49-48 (.505)
In-Region Record: 49-48 (.505)
Record vs. .500+: 1-3 (.250)
Quality Wins: vs. Augustana (6-4)
Notable Losses: vs. Wayne State (6-5), @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), vs. Mary (9-4)
Bad Losses: @ UM-Duluth (5-6)

Adam Stanek's NSIC Power Rankings (Jan. 11, 2010)

Hey, y'all. Sorry, I took a month off after being assaulted with the holidays and work. Now that the holidays are over, I think I'll get back to doing my power rankings again. At least the good news is things are becoming a little more clear cut then they were when I left off. With no further ado, here are my rankings...

1. MSU-Mankato 12-1 (11-1 D2, 8-1 NSIC)
L5 - 5-0
PG - W vs. UM-Crookston 82-72
LG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 84-76
UG - Jan. 14 @ Northern State (6-8), Jan. 15 @ U-Mary (10-4)
Note - The Mavericks are one of the biggest surprises in the early season. Not only do they have the best record in the NSIC, but the best record in the region. They didn't have the most impressive set of home games but this year in the NSIC, it doesn't matter what you win by...just as long as you win. Jefferson Mason continues to put up all-NSIC type numbers, putting up 23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and six steals against the Mustangs. The Mavericks will have a challenging road test ahead of them, as Northern State is desperate for a win and U-Mary is playing great basketball right now.

2. Winona State 11-2 (8-2 D2, 7-2 NSIC)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ Concordia-St. Paul 85-62
LG - W @ St. Cloud State 93-91 (OT)
UG - Jan. 14 vs. UM-Crookston (5-8), Jan. 15 vs. MSU-Moorhead (8-5)
Note - Winona State could not have started the new year any better, going 4-0 in the last four games and against quality opponents (U-Mary, Northern State, Concordia-St. Paul, St. Cloud State). The Warriors had a great weekend completely annihilating Concordia-St. Paul on Saturday and followed it up with an intense win against St. Cloud, capped off with an 18-foot jumper with a second left in OT by Ben Fischer to give WSU a two-point win. However, the difference-maker lately has been Clayton Vette, who is starting to look like a dominant center. He scored 28 points on 12-of-16 shooting while gathering 13 rebounds. WSU comes back home and plays a few easier opponents this week, taking on UM-Crookston on Friday night and MSU-Moorhead on Saturday.

3. U-Mary 10-4 (10-4 D2, 6-4 NSIC)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ MSU-Moorhead 72-57
LG - W @ UM-Crookston 71-55
UG - Jan. 14 vs. SW Minnesota State (6-7), Jan. 15 vs. MSU-Mankato (12-1)
Note - It's hard to argue this spot with the way Mary is playing. They are only one of three teams in the NSIC with 10 victories and after starting out the conference season 1-3, they've rebounded nicely winning five of their last six games. Winning on the road in the NSIC isn't easy this year but Mary went 3-1 on these last two road trips, with the only loss being a one-point loss at Winona State. Anthony Moody is putting up NSIC POY numbers, leading the NSIC in scoring (19.6 PPG), sixth in assists (4.36 APG), eighth in steals (1.57 SPG), and minutes played (38.43 MPG). Mary is going to need a strong effort out of him and his teammates this weekend, because they will be hosting an SMSU team that's desperate for a victory and an MSU team that is poised to make a run at hosting the regional for a second straight year.

4. Augustana 9-5 (6-4 D2, 6-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W @ Bemidji State 69-67
LG - W @ UM-Duluth 76-49
UG - Jan. 15 @ Wayne State (9-5)
Note - After getting the season off to a slow 3-3 start, the Vikings have rebounded nicely, winning three straight and six of their last eight games. The factor? Balance. In their wins against Bemidji and Duluth, four players scored in double figures in each game. It's not just the McCaffrey and Schilling show anymore in Sioux Falls. I think in many fans minds, they knew Augie would not be down for long. They are too well coached and have too much talent to be in the bottom half in the league. Considering how well the Vikings are playing, they might just be able to pull off a third straight road victory. It'll be tough though, as they play travel partner Wayne State in Wayne, NE...not an easy place to come away with a W.

5. Concordia-St. Paul 8-5 (6-4 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. Winona State 85-62
LG - W vs. Upper Iowa 82-73
UG - Jan. 14 vs. UM-Duluth (7-6), Jan. 15 vs. Bemidji State (7-6)
Note - I like to call the Golden Bears "the splitter," because it seems like they split every weekend series they play. Of the five weekends we've had in NSIC play, they've split four of them and the one they didn't was against their travel partner in St. Cloud State. They can come out and look great and they can also come out and look terrible. They looked mediocre against Augustana and downright dreadful against Winona State. However, they did seem to right the ship when they got a nice win against the Peacocks on Sunday. I had a hard time putting them here considering how they played against Augie and WSU but considering they beat SCSU in their home gym, I felt I owed them this much. This weekend's series could be an interesting one because UM-Duluth comes to town...they've been in a struggle losing four of their last five. They take on Bemidji State on Saturday night, a team that is 2-1 on the road and 2-4 at home.

6. Wayne State 9-5 (6-5 D2, 5-5 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - W @ UM-Duluth 111-104 (2OT)
LG - L @ Bemidji State 63-53
UG - Jan. 15 vs. Augustana (9-5)
Note - I had a tough time making this pick between Wayne and St. Cloud, but all-in-all, I decided to go with Wayne for two reasons. For one, they beat St. Cloud State handily the weekend before and secondly, their one loss last weekend was coming off a double-overtime performance. I almost had a loss written down in the column going into that Bemidji game because I thought they'd be exhausted from the game the night before. However, Wayne is far from playing their best basketball. During their 2-3 stretch, they are so far the only NSIC team this season to lose to UM-Crookston. That really needs to put a black eye on their program even though the Golden Eagles seem improved. All-in-all, the Wildcats need to take care of business this weekend when Augustana comes to town. They are two teams going in different directions right now.

7. St. Cloud State 6-7 (5-6 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - W vs. Upper Iowa 76-68
LG - L vs. Winona State 93-91 (OT)
UG - Jan. 14 vs. Bemidji State (7-6), Jan. 15 vs. UM-Duluth (7-6)
Note - I have a hard time putting the Huskies in this spot because I know they are better than the seventh best team in the NSIC. They are 6-7 but they're 5-3 in their last eight. They are making strides in the right direction but this team just can't get healthy. With Jesse Fisher and Theo Rothstein both out, they were only able to go eight deep this past weekend and really only seven of those guys saw significant minutes. Injuries have plagued the Huskies all season but with the way Taylor Witt and Andrew Bernstetter are playing, they are carrying this team. Bernstetter scored 64 points on 23-of-37 FG, 7-of-11 3ptFG, 11-of-14 FT and gathered 23 rebounds in two games. That's phenomenal, and Witt was no slouch himself scoring 43 points and dishing out 15 assists. However, the Huskies need to start getting production from their other players as both the Beavers and Bulldogs come to town. It might not be a bad draw considering the buzz saw they went through this past weekend.

8. MSU-Moorhead 8-5 (5-4 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. U-Mary 72-57
LG - W vs. Northern State 72-71
UG - Jan. 14 @ Upper Iowa (4-9), Jan. 15 @ Winona State (11-2)
Note - The Dragons are a tough team to read so far this season. I can't tell if they are really good or just plain average. In a sense, they are just like Concordia-St. Paul where they split just about every weekend. However, this past weekend did show that perhaps the Dragons are coming a bit down to Earth. While it was true that they got beat up at home against a Mary team that was hot as the sun, they struggled to beat a bottom-feeding Northern State team, who missed a shot at the buzzer that would've won the game. When I look at this Dragons team though, they seem to have a lot of young talent and rookie head coach Chad Walthall seems to be doing a good job of coaching them up. I know I didn't expect to see them at 8-5 at this point in the season, and beat teams like Augie and SMSU to get there. They'll have a challenge on their hands this weekend though when they travel to Upper Iowa, who are a pesky bunch and a red-hot Winona State team in McCown.

9. Bemidji State 7-6 (4-6 D2, 4-5 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. Augustana 69-67
LG - W vs. Wayne State 63-53
UG - Jan. 14 @ St. Cloud State (5-6), Jan. 15 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-5)
Note - After getting off to an abysmal start in NSIC play, the Beavers have looked much better of late, winning three of their last five and their two losses coming against U-Mary on their turf and Augie in a barn-burner. Much like Augustana, the Beavers seem to be finding better balance and the team appears to have much stronger play now that Lance Rongstad is finally starting to get healthy. James Ellisor has been a fantastic player in NSIC play thus far and now that Rongstad, Bryce Tesdahl, Mason Walters and Patrick Cassidy are supplying support, I believe they can make a push for the upper half of the NSIC. It'll be a challege getting there this weekend though, as they travel to St. Cloud and St. Paul for two tough games. It would serve them well if they could get at least a split on that road trip.

10. UM-Duluth 7-6 (5-6 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. Wayne State 111-104 (2OT)
LG - L vs. Augustana 76-49
UG - Jan. 14 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-5), Jan. 15 @ St. Cloud State (6-7)
Note - Are the Bulldogs who we thought they were? Judging by the last five games, it certainly seems like it. After starting off conference play 4-0, they've now dropped four of their last five games. Worst part of all, three straight home losses. This is a terrible time for UMD to struggle because of the 13 remaining games on the schedule, only four of them are home games. Did I already mention it's not easy to win on the road? It's amazing that UMD went from first in the NSIC to a team that's in danger of dropping out of the top 8 in the NSIC in a matter of a month. This road trip to St. Paul and St. Cloud doesn't compound well for the Bulldogs because they are playing two teams that are tough to beat on their respective home courts and are playing much better basketball than the Bulldogs right now.

11. Upper Iowa 4-9 (3-8 D2, 3-6 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ St. Cloud State 76-68
LG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 82-73
UG - Jan. 14 vs. MSU-Moorhead (8-5), Jan. 15 vs. UM-Crookston (5-8)
Note - I had a tough time deciding between the Peacocks and Mustangs for this spot, but in the end, I decided to go with Upper Iowa because they've been playing much better basketball than the Mustangs, even in their losses. Upper Iowa might be the most deceptive 4-9 basketball team in the NSIC. They've only lost two conference games by double figures, and in both those games, they were extremely competitive for most of the game (against the top two teams in the NSIC, no less). However, the Peacocks are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and are looking to break out of it. They'll have a better chance this weekend when they host MSU-Moorhead and UM-Crookston. However, they also know they can't overlook either team, as both are better teams than they were last year.

12. SW Minnesota State 6-7 (5-6 D2, 3-6 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. MSU-Moorhead 84-64
LG - L @ MSU-Mankato 84-76
UG - Jan. 14 @ U-Mary (10-4), Jan. 15 @ Northern State (6-8)
Note - The Mustangs are in perhaps the worst slump I've ever personally seen them in. After starting off conference play with impressive wins over Augustana and Wayne State, they've lost six of their last seven games. It's hard to fault them though...four of those six losses were by two points or less. Irony would have it that one weekend provided losses with missed shots at the buzzer and the next weekend would be losing two games with made shots at the buzzer. Lately though, their losses are becoming more...horrific. Losing by 20 at MSU-Moorhead (despite how improved, is embarrassing). From the outside looking in, it appears this team needs somebody outside of Jordan Miller and Scott Roehl to step up for them. This will be a telling weekend for the Mustangs as they travel to Mary and Northern State this weekend. I guess if there's any good news, the Mustangs are 2-0 in the Dakotas/Nebraska...

13. Northern State 6-8 (2-8 D2, 2-8 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - W @ UM-Crookston 75-65
LG - L @ MSU-Moorhead 72-71
UG - Jan. 14 vs. MSU-Mankato (12-1), Jan. 15 vs. SW Minnesota State (6-7)
Note - I said at the beginning of the year that Northern State would surprise everyone in the league. Oh, they are surprising everyone all right...they are surprisingly bad. What's funny about Northern is they are the third best scoring team in the league, averaging 77.6 PPG. However, the problem is with their defense. They are dead last in scoring defense, giving up 77.4 PPG. Isn't it ironic what happens when you play a weak OOC? After starting out 5-0 (one being a conference victory), the Wolves have lost eight of their last nine games and their one win being at Crookston. Granted, the Wolves did play better this weekend, ALMOST getting a road sweep. However, the fact remains that they still aren't playing that well and need to do a better job on defense. This weekend, they come home but it might not be so home-sweet-home as they host the top team in the region thus far in MSU-Mankato and follow it up with an SMSU team who is just as desperate for a victory as they are.

14. UM-Crookston 5-8 (1-8 D2, 1-8 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. Northern State 75-65
LG - L vs. U-Mary 71-55
UG - Jan. 14 @ Winona State (11-2), Jan. 15 @ Upper Iowa (4-9)
Note - Well, I don't think any of us should be surprised that the Golden Eagles are the worst team in the NSIC but one thing I am surprised about is they aren't getting beaten as badly as I thought they would. Since their opening round games, they have not lost an NSIC game by more than 16 points. Last year, 14 of UMC's 22 losses were by more than that margin. So far, UMC only has two terrible losses and they were both the opening weekend of NSIC play. There are two big reasons why UMC plays much better this year. First reason, Eric Dearden. He's been a great addition to the Golden Eagles, scoring 13.4 PPG and is almost averaging two steals a game. Second reason, Adam Hendricks. Hendricks is averaging 11.5 PPG and appears to be the team's leader considering he's one of the few starters from last year's squad contributing to this one. The Golden Eagles are put in a tough situation as they travel to Winona State and Upper Iowa this weekend, two VERY tough places to play and win.