Adam Stanek's Central Region Power Rankings (2/10/13)

Top Ten

1. Minnesota State - 19-3 (17-3 D2)
LW - 1 (-)
Massey - 6
Wilson - 5
SOS - 28
Record vs. .500+ - 9-3
Quality Wins - vs. Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. San Francisco State-N (13-7)
Notable Losses - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Bemidji State (12-11) 82-74, 2/9 - W vs. UM-Crookston (0-18) 93-55
TW - 2/15 - @ #6 Upper Iowa (16-7), 2/16 - @ #2 Winona State (21-4)
Analysis - While by my criteria that it's a notable loss, in hindsight it's a bad loss for the Mavericks. With WSU playing at St. Cloud, they had a golden opportunity to stretch their #1 seed lead. Now it's in more danger than ever. With road games against Upper Iowa and Winona State this week, the Mavericks, for the first time I started doing these Power Rankings, are in danger of dropping out of the #1 spot.

2. Winona State - 21-4 (21-4 D2)
LW - 2 (-)
Massey - 5
Wilson - 4
SOS - 2
Record vs. .500+ - 12-4
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), @ Ferris State (11-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Metro State (19-0), @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ St. Cloud State (15-5)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 79-78, 2/9 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 89-73
TW - 2/15 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14), 2/16 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3)
Analysis - Much like MSU, Winona State had a golden opportunity to steal the #1 spot this week with a win at St. Cloud State. Unfortunately, a 14-2 run by the Huskies to open up the 2nd half and strong play by SCSU prevented WSU from catching up and getting a win in St. Cloud. Still, the Warriors with a little luck still have a good chance to get the #1 spot. They'll be hosting the #1 team this week in what is one of the most #1 vs. #2 matchups we've seen in quite some time within the region.

3. Augustana - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 4 (+1)
Massey - 17
Wilson - 16
SOS - 39
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Wayne State (13-9), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 79-62, 2/9 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12), 2/16 - @ #11 SW Minnesota State (14-10)
Analysis - Considering the Vikings had two tough road games this week, a split didn't hurt them this week, in fact, it actually helped. It was surprising to see how much the Dragons dominated the Vikings last Friday. However, they battled back and played a strong game at Northern State, who was in a must win game in their own right. Still, this four game road stand is far from over, and with USF playing well and a tough game at SW Minnesota State, another split could be dangerous for the Vikings going into the last week of the season.

4. St. Cloud State - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 5 (+1)
Massey - 14
Wilson - 20
SOS - 38
Record vs. .500+ - 6-4
Quality Wins - @ Florida Southern (17-2), vs. Winona State (21-4) @ Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7) @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #2 Winona State (21-4) 79-78, 2/9 - L vs. #10 Upper Iowa (16-7) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #16 MSU-Moorhead (12-8), 2/16 - vs. #10 Northern State (13-8)
Analysis - What a helter-skelter week for SCSU. They came out and played a terrific game against Winona State. I even said to Husky at the game that the one thing that scares me about the Huskies was their guard speed, which they used to their advantage against WSU. They also played a great first half against Upper Iowa, looking like they were going to cruise to an impressive 2-0 week. That didn't happen as Upper Iowa punched the Huskies in the mouth in the 2nd half, and stole another impressive road win on a game-winning shot. Still, SCSU played better than they did the week before and will need to keep it up this week. Home games against desperate MSU-Moorhead and Northern State teams looms.

5. Harding - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 3 (-2)
Massey - 49
Wilson - 25
SOS - 142
Record vs. .500+ - 10-3
Quality Wins - vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State-N (12-7), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-7), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ Christian Brothers (11-7), vs. Christian Brothers (11-7)
Notable Losses - @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - @ East Central (6-11), @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11)
LW - 2/7 - L @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 80-61, 2/9 - L @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 71-60
TW - 2/14 - vs. Henderson State (8-10), 2/16 - @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8)
Analysis - Reality might be starting to sink in for the Bison. They just aren't that good of a road team. While they post a 12-0 record at home, they are 4-4 on the road and 1-1 in neutral site games. A 1-2 road stand the past two weeks doesn't bode well for Harding. They luckily do get a home game this week, but a road game at Ouachita Baptist has to be concerning to a team that's having a hard time winning away from Searcy.

6. Upper Iowa - 17-7 (16-7 D2)

LW - 10 (+4)

Massey - 26

Wilson - 24

M-SOS - 24

Record vs. .500+ - 6-7

Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)

Notable Losses - vs. Winona State (21-4), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10)

Bad Losses - None

LW - 2/8 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 70-69, 2/9 - W @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3), 2/16 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
Analysis - That's just how close the region is. A week where if you win twice can propel you up four spots. Upper Iowa escaped Duluth with a one point win which could've easily been a horrible loss for the Peacocks. They then backed it up with a statement win against St. Cloud State on yet another game-winning shot. I find it impressive that the Peacocks have road wins against three of the top four teams in the league and will have an opportunity for all four in a few weeks. Still, this week is an important one for Upper Iowa. It's their last home weekend of the year until conference tourney time and they've got a big Friday night game against MSU.

7. Central Missouri - 15-6 (12-6 D2)

LW - 6 (-1)

Massey - 37

Wilson - 39

SOS - 81

Record vs. .500+ - 5-5

Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa-N (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith-N (11-9)

Notable Losses - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. SW Minnesota State-N (14-10), @ Lindenwood (11-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)

Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (8-10)

LW - 2/7 - L @ Central Oklahoma (9-9) 69-67, 2/9 - L @ Missouri Southern (8-10) 93-81
TW - 2/13 - vs. #14 Lindenwood (11-6), 2/16 - vs. Lincoln (3-19)
Analysis - My, how things have turned south for the Mules in a hurry. Two weeks ago, UCM was riding high and had a two game lead on everyone in the MIAA. Now, three straight losses has Central Missouri in a tie for first place with Fort Hays State and with 7 teams within a game of each other for first place in the MIAA, up for grabs is an understatement. Fortunately for the Mules though, they get two home games this week, and with a 10-0 home mark, home sweet home has never sounded sweeter.

8. Northeastern State - 16-6 (14-6 D2)
LW - 7 (-1)
Massey - 45
Wilson - 37
SOS - 120
Record vs. .500+ - 7-4
Quality Wins - vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6)
Bad Losses - @ SW Baptist (8-13), vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
LW - 2/7 - L vs. Lindenwood (10-6) 78-66, 2/9 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 72-56
TW - 2/13 - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10), 2/16 - @ #13 Pittsburg State (11-7)
Analysis - It was pretty close between Central Missouri and Northeastern State for the #7 spot, but due to UCM's SOS and head-to-head win over Northeastern, I gave them the edge. Considering the way things are going, the Riverhawks should feel a little relieved with a split. I'm sure they wish they had played better with a home game against Lindenwood, but it's not like Lindenwood isn't a hot team at the moment. However, these next two weeks are crucial for Northeastern. They have two tough road games in the final two weeks and they might need to win one of them to have any shot at a MIAA title.

9. Washburn - 15-5 (12-5 D2)
LW - 11 (+2)
Massey - 42
Wilson - 39
SOS - 99
Record vs. .500+ - 4-3
Quality Wins - vs. St. Mary's (13-6), @ Fort Hays State (1-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Truman State (5-12)
LW - 2/6 - L vs. Missouri Western (7-11) 79-74, 2/9 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - @ Missouri Western (7-11), 2/16 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7)
Analysis - Before I get someone telling me, "hey, wait a minute", no that's not a mistake. Washburn plays the same teams this week as they played last week. Although, I'm sure the Ichabods are going to be hoping for a different result in the Missouri Western game. It's head scratching that they lost that game. Apparently they took that frustration out on NW Missouri State. The game itself wasn't nearly as close as the 80-67 final score. Washburn dominated the Bearcats from start to finish. While I'm sure Washburn will gladly accept rematches, I'm sure they'd rather not play them on the road.

10. Northern State - 17-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 8 (-2)
Massey - 43
Wilson - 48
SOS - 56
Record vs. .500+ - 6-8
Quality Wins - @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills (11-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 70-67, 2/9 - L vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17), 2/16 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5)
Analysis - The Wolves can't be happy with the way they are playing right now. They've lost three of their last four and have played far from their best basketball in those four games. On top of that, they really should've beat Wayne State on Friday night, letting the Wildcats come back from a big deficit to get the win. Needless to say, the Wolves regional chances suffered a minor blow with this two game sweep. Fortunately for them, they have an opportunity ahead of them. Three of their final four games are against very winnable opponents and the one tough game they have left on the docket is a golden opportunity for them to extract some revenge on the Huskies.

Honorable Mention

11. SW Minnesota State - 14-11 (14-10 D2)
LW - 12 (+1)
Massey - 40
Wilson - 44
SOS - 1
Record vs. .500+ - 8-9
Quality Wins - vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Michigan Tech (15-6), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (4-12)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. U-Mary (2-18) 77-64, 2/9 - W vs. Minot State (7-13) 78-68
TW - 2/15 - vs. #17 Wayne State (13-9), 2/16 - vs. #3 Augustana (15-5)
Analysis - I'm sure the Mustangs must be feeling pretty good to FINALLY have a soft spot in their best schedule in the nation to get a few wins. They must also be feeling good because no one is running away from them in the Regional standings. They are looking a big week in the eye though. Home games against Wayne State and Augustana are a golden opportunity. They have the opportunity to get two big quality victories and climb up the Regional ranks. If all goes well, they might be back in the top 10 this week. I bet that's something Mustangs fans never would've thought two weeks ago.

12. NW Missouri State - 15-7 (12-7 D2)
LW - 9 (-3)
Massey - 68
Wilson - 58
SOS - 85
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Harding-N (15-5), @ Washburn (12-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Lincoln (3-19)
LW - 2/6 - L @ Fort Hays State (11-6) 59-58, 2/9 - L @ #11 Washburn (12-5) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - vs. #18 Fort Hays State (11-6), 2/16 - vs. #9 Washburn (12-5)
Analysis - It's almost hard to believe that the Bearcats have played 3 one-point games this year. Unfortunately for them, they ended up on the losing end of one last week at Fort Hays State. I bet they wish they could say the same thing about the Washburn game though. They were never really in that game. Fortunately, they get rematches this week on their home court. They've been pretty solid on their home court this year, but with the way they are playing, I'm not the most optimistic about them coming away with two wins this week. A split? Maybe...

13. Pittsburg State - 14-7 (11-7 D2)
LW - 12 (-1)
Massey - 82
Wilson - 64
SOS - 95
Record vs. .500+ - 5-5
Quality Wins - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith (11-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Newman (15-4), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), @ Washburn (12-5)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (6-10), vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
LW - 2/7 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 79-75, 2/9 - L vs. SW Baptist (8-13) 81-75
TW - 2/16 - vs. #8 Northeastern State (14-6)
Analysis - What a horrific week for the Gorillas. They escaped with a home win against Truman State and then managed to lose a bad one at home against Southwest Baptist. They had a huge lead in that one and let it slip away. It comes at a horrible time as well. The one thing I will say though is I wouldn't be looking forward to this game if I were Northeastern State because Pittsburg has a whole week to prepare for them and you know they'll still have a sour taste in their mouths after that loss.

14. Lindenwood - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - 14 (-)
Massey - 52
Wilson - 73
SOS - 150
Record vs. .500+ - 4-4
Quality Wins - @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Central Missouri (12-6) @ Maryville (17-6), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6)
Notable Losses - @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - @ Quincy (8-10), @ Emporia State (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ Northeastern State (14-6) 78-66, 2/9 - L @ Emporia State (8-10) 61-52

TW - 2/13 @ #7 Central Missouri (12-6), 2/16 - vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
Analysis - I did wonder a little bit about how the Lions would fare with their schedule. Starting last week, six of their final seven games are on the road. When they went into Northeastern and beat them as badly as they did, I was honestly stunned. I thought perhaps this team isn't only hot, they are hot enough to beat even the best of the MIAA on the road...and then they lost at Emporia State. I can't be too critical of them because Emporia State is a tough home team, but at the same time, that's one of the road games they HAVE to win. They have a much tougher road test this week when they have to play in Warrensburg. I guess if there's anything fortunate about that game, they don't play a single team with a winning record after that.

15. Arkansas Tech - 12-8 (11-8 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 89
Wilson - 56
SOS - 35
Record vs. .500+ - 6-7
Quality Wins - @ Midwestern State (14-5), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Missouri-St. Louis-N (12-7), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Drury (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 60-57, 2/9 - W @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 60-51
TW - 2/14 - vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), 2/16 - @ Henderson State (8-10)
Anaylsis - I think the best way to describe the Wonder Boys at this point is they are revitalized. They just got two big road wins and top that off with two Harding losses, they are now only a game back of Harding in the GAC. They also have a home meeting with Harding in a few weeks so I'm sure Arkansas Tech is looking forward to it. Although, they shouldn't look too far forward. They play in an anybody beats anybody league, and overlooking Ouachita or Henderson could be dangerous.

16. MSU-Moorhead - 16-8 (12-8 D2)
LW - 15 (-1)
Massey - 50
Wilson - 61
SOS - 65
Record vs. .500+ - 3-8
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 79-62, 2/9 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5), 2/16 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17)
Analysis - I think we can finally safely say it...MSU-Moorhead FINALLY beat a high quality opponent. Since their SCSU win, it's been practically impossible for them to get a big win. In fact, it looked like they were on their way to getting two this week...until they blew a big lead against Wayne State. It's been the story of the Dragons year. They just don't fare well against quality competition. They do have an opportunity to try and improve upon that and get a sweep of St. Cloud...it's a win they desperately need if they want to get back into the regional running.

17. Wayne State - 15-9 (13-9 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 77
Wilson - 67
SOS - 64
Record vs. .500+ - 4-6
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - 2/8 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 70-67, 2/9 - W @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), 2/16 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12)
Analysis - The Wildcats run last week was downright magical. They were down double digits at Northern State and came back to win. They were down by 20 to MSU-Moorhead and came back to win. It's hard to believe that a Wayne State team of this caliber was able to do that on the road back-to-back nights against two pretty good teams. My biggest question is, can they keep it up? They've got two more tough road games this week at SW Minnesota State and a Sioux Falls team that's starting to play some pretty good basketball.

18. Fort Hays State - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 55
Wilson - 51
SOS - 118
Record vs. .500+ - 2-6
Quality Wins - vs. Central Missouri (12-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Washburn (12-5), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/6 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 59-58, 2/9 - W vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12) 94-68
TW - 2/13 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7), 2/16 - @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
Analysis - It's almost unfathomable that the team I have rated 18th in the Region is in a position to win the MIAA. Although, they have two pretty tough road games to worry about in the next three weeks. One of them being a rematch against NW Missouri State, in which they escaped with a one-point win at home. I'm sure the Bearcats will be licking their chops for this game. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, because Fort Hays State doesn't have a real strong SOS and I'm wondering if some of these tough road games coming up will be too much for them.