Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Best Games of the Week (2/18-2/25/13)

Thursday, Feb. 21
Arkansas-Monticello (12-8) @ #10 Arkansas Tech (13-8)
Monticello was able to beat Arkansas Tech earlier in the year 56-49. However, the Wonder Boys are currently on a four-game win streak and are 8-1 at home. This could be a big game to help Tech get back into regional running.

Friday, Feb. 22
#9 Upper Iowa (16-9) @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
This will be a "something has to give game" game. The Peacocks are 10-2 on the road this season with wins at Winona State, Minnesota State, and St. Cloud State to boot, while Augustana is 12-1 on their home court.

#1 Winona State (22-5) @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
The Wildcats have been a relatively tough team on their home court with a 9-4 home mark. While I'm sure WSU is the heavy favorite, the fact that WSU has Augie the next night could make this a trap game for WSU.

Saturday, Feb. 23
#14 Pittsburg State (12-7) @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
While the Gorillas are riding high off a huge road win at Northeastern State, they can't overlook Central Oklahoma, who's won four straight and haven't lost in the month of February yet.

#12 Harding (15-7) @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
The Bison need a win in the worst way, especially on the road. They are 4-5 away from Searcy this season while Monticello is 10-3 at home. This will be a difficult game for Harding to win.

#9 Upper Iowa (16-9) @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
Considering the opponents both have faced the night before, this could be a must-win game for both teams if they want to get back into the regional running. I'd say it's probably a bigger must-win for Upper Iowa, who's chances of making the regional are much stronger than Wayne's.

#3 St. Cloud State (17-5) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
While this is far from the toughest game the Huskies have played all year, it could be one of the toughest road games considering the Beavers are 7-2 in Bemidji. Both teams are playing some pretty good ball at the moment.

#1 Winona State (22-5) @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
This is definitely the biggest game of the week. There is a lot on the line in this game as WSU is fighting for the #1 spot in the region while Augustana is trying to get a better NSIC and NCAA tourney seed.

#11 SW Minnesota State (15-11) @ #2 Minnesota State (18-4)
Earlier in the year, Minnesota State needed a frantic comeback to beat the Mustangs in Marshall. The Mustangs on the other hand need this win to try and improve their regional chances. They can no longer use their #1 SOS as an excuse, they need a win in the worst way.

#6 Fort Hays State (13-6) @ #8 Washburn (13-6)
While I called the WSU/AU game the biggest game of the week, I'd call this the 2nd biggest game of the week. Both teams are fighting to get in the regional, both teams are fighting for MIAA tournament seeding, and it might all come down to what happens in this game. Fort Hays squeaked out a one-point win last time they played.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Adam Stanek's Central Region Power Rankings (2/17/13)

Top Ten

1. Winona State - 22-5 (22-5 D2)
LW - 2 (+1)
Massey - 5
Wilson - 5
SOS - 2
Record vs. .500+ - 13-4
Quality Wins - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Grand Canyon-N (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Northern State (13-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10) @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), @ Ferris State (13-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (13-8), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills-N (13-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Metro State (21-0), @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), @ St. Cloud State (17-5)
Bad Losses - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - L vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14) 89-74, W vs. #2 Minnesota State (18-4) 75-64
TW - 2/22 @ #15 Wayne State (14-10), 2/23 @ #4 Augustana (16-6)
Analysis - This was pretty much a coin-flip decision. I did consider letting Minnesota State keep the #1 spot due to that horrible loss to Concordia-St. Paul for WSU, although another reason why MSU even had #1 over WSU was due to having the head-to-head...which is out of the picture now that the two teams split. After that, it all comes down to resume...which WSU was just a little bit better. Speaking of resumes, WSU has a golden opportunity to pad it with tough road games at Wayne State and Augustana this week.

2. Minnesota State - 20-4 (18-4 D2)
LW - 1 (-1)
Massey - 8
Wilson - 6
SOS - 16
Record vs. .500+ - 10-4
Quality Wins - vs. Winona State (22-5), @ St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Augustana (16-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Northern State (13-10), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. San Francisco State-N (13-9)
Notable Losses - @ Winona State (22-5), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - W @ #9 Upper Iowa (16-9) 67-54, L @ #1 Winona State (22-5) 65-54
TW - 2/22 vs. Sioux Falls (7-13), 2/23 vs. #11 SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Analysis - For the first time since I've been doing the power rankings, the Mavericks have fallen out of the #1 spot. Of course the biggest reason why is that loss to Winona State. However, the Mavericks still must be feeling fortunate. They aren't out of #1 by much and due to the challenging weekend WSU has ahead of it, MSU still has an opportunity to reclaim that #1 spot. They still need to take care of business though because SW Minnesota State has a knack for challenging MSU and Sioux Falls might not exactly be a gimme either.

3. St. Cloud State - 19-5 (17-5 D2)
LW - 4 (+1)
Massey - 13
Wilson - 14
SOS - 31
Record vs. .500+ - 8-4
Quality Wins - @ Florida Southern (18-3), vs. Winona State (22-5) @ Northern State (13-10), vs. Northern State (13-10),@ SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9) @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (9-13)
LW - W vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10) 75-67, W vs. Northern State (13-10) 78-62
TW - 2/22 @ UM-Crookston (0-20), 2/23 @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Analysis - I'm not sure what it is about the Huskies, but they sure know how to overcome adversity. A couple weeks ago, they lost Tim Bergstrasser to a knee injury and pulled out a major upset over Winona State. This week, it appears they lost Theo Rothstein to a knee injury and they came out and shelled Northern State in order to win the NSIC North Division. In comparison to a lot of the teams in the top 10 this week, they have a relatively easy finish to their regular season with road games at UM-Crookston and Bemidji State. Of course, the BSU game won't be a walk in the park but I'm sure they'll take it over going somewhere like MSU, WSU, or Augie.

4. Augustana - 18-6 (16-6 D2)
LW - 3 (-1)
Massey - 18
Wilson - 16
SOS - 33
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), @ Northern State (13-10), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. Wayne State (14-10)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ Wayne State (14-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (7-13)
LW - L @ Sioux Falls (7-13) 70-58, W @ #12 SW Minnesota State (15-11) 92-82
TW - 2/22 vs. #9 Upper Iowa (16-9), 2/23 vs. #1 Winona State (22-5)
Analysis - It was a bit of a bizarre week for Augie, much like it was for a lot of teams in the NSIC. They got stunned against Sioux Falls, a road game you can hardly call a road game...and then came out and played a great game against SW Minnesota State. However, Augie will face their most challenging home stand of the season when Winona State and Upper Iowa come to Sioux Falls. I'm sure Vikings fans are glad it's at home considering their 12-1 home mark.

5. Central Missouri - 17-6 (14-6 D2)
LW - 6 (+1)
Massey - 40
Wilson - 31
SOS - 100
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa-N (16-9), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Lindenwood (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith-N (13-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Dixie State-N (17-4), vs. SW Minnesota State-N (15-11), @ Lindenwood (12-7), @ Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (8-12)
LW - W vs. Lindenwood (12-7) 87-72, W vs. Lincoln (3-20) 93-61
TW - 2/23 @ SW Baptist (8-15)
Analysis - There's no place like Warrensburg for the Mules. After their 1-3 road stand, they had an impressive 2-0 home stand to bounce back from that rough two week stretch. To add compliment to their recovery, they only play one game this week against a mediocre SW Baptist team. I'm getting the impression that this is the week Central Missouri separates itself from the MIAA pack.

6. Fort Hays State - 17-6 (13-6 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 39
Wilson - 35
SOS - 111
Record vs. .500+ - 4-6
Quality Wins - vs. Central Missouri (14-6), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), vs. Washburn (13-6), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - W @ NW Missouri State (13-8) 64-60, W @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-13) 82-70
TW - 2/23 @ #8 Washburn (13-6)
Analysis - I'm sure this one might be a head-scratcher for some people. Mostly because they made the jump from 18th to 6th. Trust me, I too am wondering what happened outside of winning twice. Last week, their ratings were kinda dismal and this week I check back they are solid. I'll believe this week's was a little more accurate considering their resume. Nevertheless, it'll be an interesting week for the Tigers since they need to travel to Washburn this week. If they can get a win in that game, they'll have a solid chance at winning the MIAA.

7. Northeastern State - 17-7 (15-7 D2)
LW - 8 (+1)
Massey - 52
Wilson - 38
SOS - 121
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - vs. Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Washburn (13-6), vs. Arkansas Tech (13-8), @ NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-7), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (12-7)
Bad Losses - @ SW Baptist (8-15), vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-13)
LW - W vs. Missouri Southern (8-12) 77-73, L @ #14 Pittsburg State (12-7) 89-59
TW - 2/23 @ Emporia State (9-11)
Analysis - Okay, I take back what I said about Fort Hays State being head-scratching. The Riverhawks performance this week was head-scratching. They had an AWFUL week, squeaking out an OT home win over Missouri Southern and then getting bombshelled by Pittsburg State. If I were a NE State fan, I would not be feeling very good about my team's late season performance. If they play like this at Emporia State this week, they will lose, especially considering how tough Emporia State is at home.

8. Washburn - 16-6 (13-6 D2)
LW - 9 (+1)
Massey - 42
Wilson - 44
SOS - 87
Record vs. .500+ - 4-4
Quality Wins - vs. St. Mary's (15-6), @ Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Western (8-12), vs. Truman State (6-12)
LW - W @ Missouri Western (8-12) 56-52, L @ #13 NW Missouri State (13-8) 63-61
TW - 2/21 vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-13), 2/23 vs. #6 Fort Hays State (13-6)
Analysis - Good news for the Ichabods is they avenged that bad loss they had at home to Missouri Western. Although the bad news is they couldn't get a sweep of NW Missouri State even though they had their chances. I'm sure Washburn fans must be looking forward to this week though considering the Saturday matchup the Ichabods have. That Fort Hays State game could be the game that throws Washburn right back into the MIAA championship hunt.

9. Upper Iowa - 17-9 (16-9 D2)
LW - 6 (-3)
Massey - 37
Wilson - 29
SOS - 17
Record vs. .500+ - 6-8
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ St. Cloud State (17-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-10), vs. Wayne State (14-10), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Winona State (21-4), vs. Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Central Missouri-N (14-6), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. Northern State (13-10), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Bad Losses - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - L vs. #2 Minnesota State (18-4) 67-54, L vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14) 69-67
TW - 2/22 @ #4 Augustana (16-6), 2/23 @ #15 Wayne State (14-10)
Analysis - It's a sink-or-swim stretch for the Peacocks. As expected, Minnesota State came back at them to avenge a home loss to handle Upper Iowa on their own home court. However, to make matters worse, the Peacocks couldn't finish off a Concordia-St. Paul team that's been an absolute buzz saw of late. Considering the circumstances, that might've been a must-win game, because the Peacocks face one of their most challenging road trips yet with trips to Wayne and Augie to close out the year.

10. Arkansas Tech - 14-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 15 (+5)
Massey - 54
Wilson - 38
SOS - 36
Record vs. .500+ - 7-7
Quality Wins - @ Midwestern State (15-6), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Missouri-St. Louis-N (13-8), vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-10), vs. SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ NW Oklahoma State (12-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-7), @ Drury (17-4), @ Northeastern State (15-7), @ Ouachita Baptist (11-9), @ Southern Nazarene (10-10), @ SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Southern (8-12)
LW - W vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9) 52-50, W @ Henderson State (9-10) 70-68
TW - 2/21 vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-8), 2/23 @ Southern Arkansas (5-13)
Analysis - Anyone surprised? I'm sure some people might've guessed Harding or SW Minnesota State or Pittsburg State, but no. I decided to go with Arkansas Tech. They're on quite a roll, winning four straight games. They've taken over the GAC conference lead due to a four game losing streak by Harding as well. We'll see if the Wonder Boys can keep me wondering about their regional chances. They have a tough home game against Arkansas-Monticello before hitting the road to play a weak Southern Arkansas team.

Honorable Mention

11. SW Minnesota State - 15-12 (15-11 D2)
LW - 11 (-)
Massey - 44
Wilson - 38
SOS - 1
Record vs. .500+ - 8-10
Quality Wins - vs. Grand Canyon-N (17-5), vs. Central Missouri-N (14-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), @ Northern State (13-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Wayne State (14-10), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (13-8)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), vs. Winona State (22-5), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. Augustana (16-6), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ NW Missouri State (13-8), vs. Michigan Tech (16-7), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills-N (13-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (6-12)
LW - W vs. #15 Wayne State (14-10) 87-69, L vs. #4 Augustana (16-6) 92-82
TW - 2/22 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-14), 2/23 @ #2 Minnesota State (18-4)
Analysis - The Mustangs just cannot seem to pull together a complete weekend. They had a magnificent home performance against a red-hot Wayne State team and then they cannot pull out an almost necessary home win against Augustana. It just keeps feeling like SMSU let's golden opportunity after golden opportunity slip right through their fingers. This week will be a very trying one for SMSU. They're playing a blazing Concordia-St. Paul team and a very tough Minnesota State team on the road this week. If SMSU isn't careful, they could be facing an 0-2 week ahead of them.

12. Harding - 17-7 (15-7 D2)
LW - 5 (-7)
Massey - 77
Wilson - 37
SOS - 139
Record vs. .500+ - 10-3
Quality Wins - vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State-N (13-8), vs. Arkansas Tech (13-8), vs. NW Oklahoma State (12-9), vs. Ouachita Baptist (11-9), vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-8), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-10), @ Christian Brothers (13-7), vs. Christian Brothers (11-7)
Notable Losses - @ SE Oklahoma State (12-10), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9), Ouachita Baptist (11-9)
Bad Losses - @ East Central (6-11), @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-13), vs. Henderson State (9-10)
LW - L vs. Henderson State (9-10) 70-68, L @ Ouachita Baptist (11-9) 60-56
TW - 2/21 vs. Southern Arkansas (5-13), 2/23 @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-8)
Analysis - I don't think "meltdown" even begins to describe the position the Bison are in right now. Just two weeks ago, this team had a three game lead over Arkansas Tech for the GAC lead. Now they're trailing by a game with a challenging two weeks ahead of them. At least Harding might be able to snap their four game losing streak with a home game against Southern Arkansas. However, they face road challenges at Arkansas-Monticello and Arkansas Tech after that. These are dreaded times for a Bison fan.

13. NW Missouri State - 16-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 12 (-1)
Massey - 69
Wilson - 53
SOS - 78
Record vs. .500+ - 7-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa (16-9), vs. Washburn (13-6), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11), @ Pittsburg State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (12-7), @ Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), vs. Harding-N (15-7), @ Washburn (13-6), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ Fort Hays State (13-6)
Bad Losses - vs. St. Edward's-N (12-13), @ Missouri Western (8-12), vs. Lincoln (3-20)
LW - L vs. #6 Fort Hays State (13-6) 64-60, W vs. #8 Washburn (13-6) 63-61
TW - 2/20 vs. Missouri Western (8-12)
Analysis - NWMSU's chances at winning the MIAA aren't very likely at this point. They really needed a home win against Fort Hays State in order to keep within distance but they're now two games back with only three to play. HOWEVER, the Bearcats I'm sure are thrilled about their late season schedule. They have three games, two of which at home, that are against sub-.500 teams. I know you can't overlook anyone in the MIAA, but if they can finish regular season MIAA play at 16-8, their regional chances should be at least decent. They might need a few MIAA tourney wins though to help.

14. Pittsburg State - 15-7 (12-7 D2)
LW - 13 (-1)
Massey - 67
Wilson - 52
SOS - 95
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Dixie State-N (17-4), vs. Northeastern State (15-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith (13-9), vs. Fort Hays State (13-6), @ Lindenwood (12-7), vs. Central Oklahoma (10-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Newman (17-4), @ Central Missouri (14-6), @ Northeastern State (15-7), vs. NW Missouri State (13-8), @ Washburn (13-6)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (6-12), vs. SW Baptist (8-15)
LW - W vs. #7 Northeastern State (15-7) 89-59
TW - 2/20 @ Emporia State (9-11), 2/23 @ Cen
tral Oklahoma (10-9)
Analysis - Wow, can someone ask if the Gorillas came out angry this week? After a humiliating home loss to SW Baptist, they punched a very good Northeastern State team right in the mouth with a 30 point fist. Was perhaps that SW Baptist game the start of the PSU's run? It's hard to say since it's just one game. However, it was almost as flawless of a game as you could get. It'll be an interesting pair of road games for the Gorillas this week. We'll see if they can keep that intensity up on the road.

15. Wayne State - 16-10 (14-10 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 55
Wilson - 66
SOS - 52
Record vs. .500+ - 4-8
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (16-6), @ Northern State (13-10), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-10), @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (18-4), vs. Minnesota State (18-4), @ Winona State (22-5), @ Augustana (16-6), vs. St. Cloud State (17-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-9), @ SW Minnesota State (15-11), vs. SW Minnesota State (15-11)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (9-13), @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-14)
LW - L @ #11 SW Minnesota State (15-11) 87-69, W @ Sioux Falls (7-13) 77-57
TW - 2/22 vs. #1 Winona State (22-5), 2/23 vs. #9 Upper Iowa (16-7)
Analysis - I think inconsistent would be a pretty good way to describe Wayne State's performance last week. An 18 point loss at SMSU followed up by a 20 point win against Sioux Falls is bizarre to say the least. Especially when the results flip flopped on the Augie side of things. It'll be interesting to see if the Wildcats can keep in the hunt though. They have two very tough home games against Winona State and Upper Iowa this week. This will either be the week that breaks the Wildcats or puts them into contention for a regional spot.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Adam Stanek's Central Region Power Rankings (2/10/13)

Top Ten

1. Minnesota State - 19-3 (17-3 D2)
LW - 1 (-)
Massey - 6
Wilson - 5
SOS - 28
Record vs. .500+ - 9-3
Quality Wins - vs. Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. San Francisco State-N (13-7)
Notable Losses - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Bemidji State (12-11) 82-74, 2/9 - W vs. UM-Crookston (0-18) 93-55
TW - 2/15 - @ #6 Upper Iowa (16-7), 2/16 - @ #2 Winona State (21-4)
Analysis - While by my criteria that it's a notable loss, in hindsight it's a bad loss for the Mavericks. With WSU playing at St. Cloud, they had a golden opportunity to stretch their #1 seed lead. Now it's in more danger than ever. With road games against Upper Iowa and Winona State this week, the Mavericks, for the first time I started doing these Power Rankings, are in danger of dropping out of the #1 spot.

2. Winona State - 21-4 (21-4 D2)
LW - 2 (-)
Massey - 5
Wilson - 4
SOS - 2
Record vs. .500+ - 12-4
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), @ Ferris State (11-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Metro State (19-0), @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ St. Cloud State (15-5)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 79-78, 2/9 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 89-73
TW - 2/15 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14), 2/16 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3)
Analysis - Much like MSU, Winona State had a golden opportunity to steal the #1 spot this week with a win at St. Cloud State. Unfortunately, a 14-2 run by the Huskies to open up the 2nd half and strong play by SCSU prevented WSU from catching up and getting a win in St. Cloud. Still, the Warriors with a little luck still have a good chance to get the #1 spot. They'll be hosting the #1 team this week in what is one of the most #1 vs. #2 matchups we've seen in quite some time within the region.

3. Augustana - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 4 (+1)
Massey - 17
Wilson - 16
SOS - 39
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Wayne State (13-9), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 79-62, 2/9 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12), 2/16 - @ #11 SW Minnesota State (14-10)
Analysis - Considering the Vikings had two tough road games this week, a split didn't hurt them this week, in fact, it actually helped. It was surprising to see how much the Dragons dominated the Vikings last Friday. However, they battled back and played a strong game at Northern State, who was in a must win game in their own right. Still, this four game road stand is far from over, and with USF playing well and a tough game at SW Minnesota State, another split could be dangerous for the Vikings going into the last week of the season.

4. St. Cloud State - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 5 (+1)
Massey - 14
Wilson - 20
SOS - 38
Record vs. .500+ - 6-4
Quality Wins - @ Florida Southern (17-2), vs. Winona State (21-4) @ Northern State (13-8), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7) @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #2 Winona State (21-4) 79-78, 2/9 - L vs. #10 Upper Iowa (16-7) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #16 MSU-Moorhead (12-8), 2/16 - vs. #10 Northern State (13-8)
Analysis - What a helter-skelter week for SCSU. They came out and played a terrific game against Winona State. I even said to Husky at the game that the one thing that scares me about the Huskies was their guard speed, which they used to their advantage against WSU. They also played a great first half against Upper Iowa, looking like they were going to cruise to an impressive 2-0 week. That didn't happen as Upper Iowa punched the Huskies in the mouth in the 2nd half, and stole another impressive road win on a game-winning shot. Still, SCSU played better than they did the week before and will need to keep it up this week. Home games against desperate MSU-Moorhead and Northern State teams looms.

5. Harding - 17-5 (15-5 D2)
LW - 3 (-2)
Massey - 49
Wilson - 25
SOS - 142
Record vs. .500+ - 10-3
Quality Wins - vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State-N (12-7), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), vs. Arkansas-Monticello (12-7), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ Christian Brothers (11-7), vs. Christian Brothers (11-7)
Notable Losses - @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - @ East Central (6-11), @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11)
LW - 2/7 - L @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 80-61, 2/9 - L @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 71-60
TW - 2/14 - vs. Henderson State (8-10), 2/16 - @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8)
Analysis - Reality might be starting to sink in for the Bison. They just aren't that good of a road team. While they post a 12-0 record at home, they are 4-4 on the road and 1-1 in neutral site games. A 1-2 road stand the past two weeks doesn't bode well for Harding. They luckily do get a home game this week, but a road game at Ouachita Baptist has to be concerning to a team that's having a hard time winning away from Searcy.

6. Upper Iowa - 17-7 (16-7 D2)
LW - 10 (+4)
Massey - 26
Wilson - 24
M-SOS - 24
Record vs. .500+ - 6-7
Quality Wins - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - vs. Winona State (21-4), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Northern State (13-8), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ SW Minnesota State (14-10)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - W @ UM-Duluth (4-17) 70-69, 2/9 - W @ #5 St. Cloud State (15-5) 71-70
TW - 2/15 - vs. #1 Minnesota State (17-3), 2/16 - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
Analysis - That's just how close the region is. A week where if you win twice can propel you up four spots. Upper Iowa escaped Duluth with a one point win which could've easily been a horrible loss for the Peacocks. They then backed it up with a statement win against St. Cloud State on yet another game-winning shot. I find it impressive that the Peacocks have road wins against three of the top four teams in the league and will have an opportunity for all four in a few weeks. Still, this week is an important one for Upper Iowa. It's their last home weekend of the year until conference tourney time and they've got a big Friday night game against MSU.

7. Central Missouri - 15-6 (12-6 D2)
LW - 6 (-1)
Massey - 37
Wilson - 39
SOS - 81
Record vs. .500+ - 5-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa-N (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith-N (11-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. SW Minnesota State-N (14-10), @ Lindenwood (11-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - L @ Central Oklahoma (9-9) 69-67, 2/9 - L @ Missouri Southern (8-10) 93-81
TW - 2/13 - vs. #14 Lindenwood (11-6), 2/16 - vs. Lincoln (3-19)
Analysis - My, how things have turned south for the Mules in a hurry. Two weeks ago, UCM was riding high and had a two game lead on everyone in the MIAA. Now, three straight losses has Central Missouri in a tie for first place with Fort Hays State and with 7 teams within a game of each other for first place in the MIAA, up for grabs is an understatement. Fortunately for the Mules though, they get two home games this week, and with a 10-0 home mark, home sweet home has never sounded sweeter.

8. Northeastern State - 16-6 (14-6 D2)
LW - 7 (-1)
Massey - 45
Wilson - 37
SOS - 120
Record vs. .500+ - 7-4
Quality Wins - vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Arkansas Tech (11-8), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6)
Bad Losses - @ SW Baptist (8-13), vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
LW - 2/7 - L vs. Lindenwood (10-6) 78-66, 2/9 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 72-56
TW - 2/13 - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10), 2/16 - @ #13 Pittsburg State (11-7)
Analysis - It was pretty close between Central Missouri and Northeastern State for the #7 spot, but due to UCM's SOS and head-to-head win over Northeastern, I gave them the edge. Considering the way things are going, the Riverhawks should feel a little relieved with a split. I'm sure they wish they had played better with a home game against Lindenwood, but it's not like Lindenwood isn't a hot team at the moment. However, these next two weeks are crucial for Northeastern. They have two tough road games in the final two weeks and they might need to win one of them to have any shot at a MIAA title.

9. Washburn - 15-5 (12-5 D2)
LW - 11 (+2)
Massey - 42
Wilson - 39
SOS - 99
Record vs. .500+ - 4-3
Quality Wins - vs. St. Mary's (13-6), @ Fort Hays State (1-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Truman State (5-12)
LW - 2/6 - L vs. Missouri Western (7-11) 79-74, 2/9 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - @ Missouri Western (7-11), 2/16 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7)
Analysis - Before I get someone telling me, "hey, wait a minute", no that's not a mistake. Washburn plays the same teams this week as they played last week. Although, I'm sure the Ichabods are going to be hoping for a different result in the Missouri Western game. It's head scratching that they lost that game. Apparently they took that frustration out on NW Missouri State. The game itself wasn't nearly as close as the 80-67 final score. Washburn dominated the Bearcats from start to finish. While I'm sure Washburn will gladly accept rematches, I'm sure they'd rather not play them on the road.

10. Northern State - 17-8 (13-8 D2)
LW - 8 (-2)
Massey - 43
Wilson - 48
SOS - 56
Record vs. .500+ - 6-8
Quality Wins - @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), vs. MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Bemidji State (12-11), vs. CSU-Dominguez Hills (11-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8), vs. Wayne State (13-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 70-67, 2/9 - L vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 72-62
TW - 2/15 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17), 2/16 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5)
Analysis - The Wolves can't be happy with the way they are playing right now. They've lost three of their last four and have played far from their best basketball in those four games. On top of that, they really should've beat Wayne State on Friday night, letting the Wildcats come back from a big deficit to get the win. Needless to say, the Wolves regional chances suffered a minor blow with this two game sweep. Fortunately for them, they have an opportunity ahead of them. Three of their final four games are against very winnable opponents and the one tough game they have left on the docket is a golden opportunity for them to extract some revenge on the Huskies.

Honorable Mention

11. SW Minnesota State - 14-11 (14-10 D2)
LW - 12 (+1)
Massey - 40
Wilson - 44
SOS - 1
Record vs. .500+ - 8-9
Quality Wins - vs. Grand Canyon-N (15-5), vs. Central Missouri-N (12-6), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Wayne State (13-9), vs. UNC-Pembroke-N (11-8)
Notable Losses - vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), vs. Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Michigan Tech (15-6), @ Bemidji State (12-11), vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills-N (11-11)
Bad Losses - @ Sioux Falls (4-12)
LW - 2/8 - W vs. U-Mary (2-18) 77-64, 2/9 - W vs. Minot State (7-13) 78-68
TW - 2/15 - vs. #17 Wayne State (13-9), 2/16 - vs. #3 Augustana (15-5)
Analysis - I'm sure the Mustangs must be feeling pretty good to FINALLY have a soft spot in their best schedule in the nation to get a few wins. They must also be feeling good because no one is running away from them in the Regional standings. They are looking a big week in the eye though. Home games against Wayne State and Augustana are a golden opportunity. They have the opportunity to get two big quality victories and climb up the Regional ranks. If all goes well, they might be back in the top 10 this week. I bet that's something Mustangs fans never would've thought two weeks ago.

12. NW Missouri State - 15-7 (12-7 D2)
LW - 9 (-3)
Massey - 68
Wilson - 58
SOS - 85
Record vs. .500+ - 6-5
Quality Wins - vs. Upper Iowa (16-7), vs. Northeastern State (14-6), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Lindenwood (11-6), @ Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Harding-N (15-5), @ Washburn (12-5), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Fort Hays State (11-6), vs. St. Edward's-N (12-11)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Western (8-11), vs. Lincoln (3-19)
LW - 2/6 - L @ Fort Hays State (11-6) 59-58, 2/9 - L @ #11 Washburn (12-5) 80-67
TW - 2/13 - vs. #18 Fort Hays State (11-6), 2/16 - vs. #9 Washburn (12-5)
Analysis - It's almost hard to believe that the Bearcats have played 3 one-point games this year. Unfortunately for them, they ended up on the losing end of one last week at Fort Hays State. I bet they wish they could say the same thing about the Washburn game though. They were never really in that game. Fortunately, they get rematches this week on their home court. They've been pretty solid on their home court this year, but with the way they are playing, I'm not the most optimistic about them coming away with two wins this week. A split? Maybe...

13. Pittsburg State - 14-7 (11-7 D2)
LW - 12 (-1)
Massey - 82
Wilson - 64
SOS - 95
Record vs. .500+ - 5-5
Quality Wins - vs. Dixie State-N (15-4), vs. Arkansas-Fort Smith (11-9), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Notable Losses - vs. Newman (15-4), @ Central Missouri (12-6), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7), @ Washburn (12-5)
Bad Losses - @ Missouri Southern (6-10), vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
LW - 2/7 - W vs. Truman State (5-12) 79-75, 2/9 - L vs. SW Baptist (8-13) 81-75
TW - 2/16 - vs. #8 Northeastern State (14-6)
Analysis - What a horrific week for the Gorillas. They escaped with a home win against Truman State and then managed to lose a bad one at home against Southwest Baptist. They had a huge lead in that one and let it slip away. It comes at a horrible time as well. The one thing I will say though is I wouldn't be looking forward to this game if I were Northeastern State because Pittsburg has a whole week to prepare for them and you know they'll still have a sour taste in their mouths after that loss.

14. Lindenwood - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - 14 (-)
Massey - 52
Wilson - 73
SOS - 150
Record vs. .500+ - 4-4
Quality Wins - @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Central Missouri (12-6) @ Maryville (17-6), vs. Fort Hays State (11-6)
Notable Losses - @ NW Missouri State (12-7), vs. Pittsburg State (11-7), vs. Washburn (12-5), vs. Central Oklahoma (9-9)
Bad Losses - @ Quincy (8-10), @ Emporia State (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ Northeastern State (14-6) 78-66, 2/9 - L @ Emporia State (8-10) 61-52

TW - 2/13 @ #7 Central Missouri (12-6), 2/16 - vs. SW Baptist (8-13)
Analysis - I did wonder a little bit about how the Lions would fare with their schedule. Starting last week, six of their final seven games are on the road. When they went into Northeastern and beat them as badly as they did, I was honestly stunned. I thought perhaps this team isn't only hot, they are hot enough to beat even the best of the MIAA on the road...and then they lost at Emporia State. I can't be too critical of them because Emporia State is a tough home team, but at the same time, that's one of the road games they HAVE to win. They have a much tougher road test this week when they have to play in Warrensburg. I guess if there's anything fortunate about that game, they don't play a single team with a winning record after that.

15. Arkansas Tech - 12-8 (11-8 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 89
Wilson - 56
SOS - 35
Record vs. .500+ - 6-7
Quality Wins - @ Midwestern State (14-5), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9), vs. Missouri-St. Louis-N (12-7), vs. Southern Nazarene (10-9), vs. SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Notable Losses - @ Harding (15-5), @ Drury (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), @ Ouachita Baptist (10-8), @ Southern Nazarene (10-9), @ SE Oklahoma State (11-9), @ Arkansas-Monticello (12-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Missouri Southern (8-10)
LW - 2/7 - W @ SW Oklahoma State (9-11) 60-57, 2/9 - W @ NW Oklahoma State (10-9) 60-51
TW - 2/14 - vs. Ouachita Baptist (10-8), 2/16 - @ Henderson State (8-10)
Anaylsis - I think the best way to describe the Wonder Boys at this point is they are revitalized. They just got two big road wins and top that off with two Harding losses, they are now only a game back of Harding in the GAC. They also have a home meeting with Harding in a few weeks so I'm sure Arkansas Tech is looking forward to it. Although, they shouldn't look too far forward. They play in an anybody beats anybody league, and overlooking Ouachita or Henderson could be dangerous.

16. MSU-Moorhead - 16-8 (12-8 D2)
LW - 15 (-1)
Massey - 50
Wilson - 61
SOS - 65
Record vs. .500+ - 3-8
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), vs. Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Upper Iowa (16-7), @ Northern State (13-8), vs. Northern State (13-8), vs. SW Minnesota State (14-10), vs. Wayne State (13-9) @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/8 - W vs. #4 Augustana (15-5) 79-62, 2/9 - L vs. Wayne State (13-9) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ #4 St. Cloud State (15-5), 2/16 - @ UM-Duluth (4-17)
Analysis - I think we can finally safely say it...MSU-Moorhead FINALLY beat a high quality opponent. Since their SCSU win, it's been practically impossible for them to get a big win. In fact, it looked like they were on their way to getting two this week...until they blew a big lead against Wayne State. It's been the story of the Dragons year. They just don't fare well against quality competition. They do have an opportunity to try and improve upon that and get a sweep of St. Cloud...it's a win they desperately need if they want to get back into the regional running.

17. Wayne State - 15-9 (13-9 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 77
Wilson - 67
SOS - 64
Record vs. .500+ - 4-6
Quality Wins - vs. Augustana (15-5), @ Northern State (13-8), @ MSU-Moorhead (12-8), @ Bemidji State (12-11)
Notable Losses - @ Minnesota State (17-3), vs. Minnesota State (17-3), @ Winona State (21-4), @ Augustana (15-5), vs. St. Cloud State (15-5), @ Upper Iowa (16-7)
Bad Losses - vs. Minot State (7-13), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-14)
LW - 2/8 - W @ #8 Northern State (13-8) 70-67, 2/9 - W @ #15 MSU-Moorhead (12-8) 73-70
TW - 2/15 - @ SW Minnesota State (14-10), 2/16 - @ Sioux Falls (6-12)
Analysis - The Wildcats run last week was downright magical. They were down double digits at Northern State and came back to win. They were down by 20 to MSU-Moorhead and came back to win. It's hard to believe that a Wayne State team of this caliber was able to do that on the road back-to-back nights against two pretty good teams. My biggest question is, can they keep it up? They've got two more tough road games this week at SW Minnesota State and a Sioux Falls team that's starting to play some pretty good basketball.

18. Fort Hays State - 15-6 (11-6 D2)
LW - NR
Massey - 55
Wilson - 51
SOS - 118
Record vs. .500+ - 2-6
Quality Wins - vs. Central Missouri (12-6), vs. NW Missouri State (12-7)
Notable Losses - @ Newman (15-4), @ Northeastern State (14-6), vs. Washburn (12-5), @ Pittsburg State (11-7), @ Lindenwood (11-6), vs. NW Oklahoma State (10-9)
Bad Losses - None
LW - 2/6 - W vs. #9 NW Missouri State (12-7) 59-58, 2/9 - W vs. Nebraska-Kearney (6-12) 94-68
TW - 2/13 - @ #12 NW Missouri State (12-7), 2/16 - @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-12)
Analysis - It's almost unfathomable that the team I have rated 18th in the Region is in a position to win the MIAA. Although, they have two pretty tough road games to worry about in the next three weeks. One of them being a rematch against NW Missouri State, in which they escaped with a one-point win at home. I'm sure the Bearcats will be licking their chops for this game. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, because Fort Hays State doesn't have a real strong SOS and I'm wondering if some of these tough road games coming up will be too much for them.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Adam Stanek's NSIC Power Rankings (Jan. 21, 2010)

Hey guys, sorry about not getting this up yesterday. The last few days have been pretty brutal. I'm not sure why but I have a feeling that my rankings this week are going to aggravate a few people. Let me remind you guys what the "criteria" is for my power rankings just so you guys have a feeling of how it works...

1. Overall body of work
2. SOS
3. Head-to-head
4. How they've played lately

I'm giving you guys this list so I don't get any, "Hey, how come this team is ranked below this team?!" sort of stuff. With no further ado, here are this week's rankings...

1. MSU-Mankato 13-2 (12-2 D2, 9-2 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ Northern State 91-73
LG - L @ U-Mary 84-69
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Bemidji State (7-8), Jan. 22 vs. UM-Duluth (7-8)
Note - I know I might catch some flack here for ranking MSU-Mankato first still, even after getting dismantled against Mary, but like I mentioned earlier, I need to measure the entire body of work. Right now, no one in the NSIC has a stronger body of work than MSU-Mankato and even they should be allowed to play one bad game once in a while. Mary snapped a six-game winning streak, something that's pretty astonishing in the NSIC this year. The Mavericks really shouldn't be ashamed to lose to Mary but as noted by Coach Margenthaler, they should be disappointed with the lack of effort and intensity they brought forth into this game. I have a feeling the Mavericks will bounce back this weekend when the Beavers and Bulldogs come to town. The Beavers could give MSU a run for their money but considering how the Bulldogs are playing, it could be an easy win on Saturday.

2. Winona State 12-3 (9-3 D2, 8-3 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W vs. UM-Crookston 108-68
LG - L vs. MSU-Moorhead 95-87
UG - Jan. 21 @ Wayne State (9-6), Jan. 22 @ Augustana (10-5)
Note - This is another spot where I think I'll catch some flack for not putting Mary but there are reasons why. For one, my main criteria is overall body of work. WSU's overall body of work is slightly better than Mary's (even though Mary did beat MSU). The other would be WSU also beat Mary head-to-head three weeks ago. It's sort of a vicious circle anyway considering MSU > WSU > Mary > MSU. If you really think about it, WSU really only played one bad half against Moorhead. Yes, it was a REALLY bad half...the worst I've ever seen in my six years of watching WSU basketball. However, they did make a nice effort in the second half to at least make the game interesting. However, this should be WSU's warning though...if they play like that for even a half against Augie or Wayne, they will lose.

3. U-Mary 12-4 (12-4 D2, 8-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 5-0
PG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 60-48
LG - W vs. MSU-Mankato 84-69
UG - Jan. 22 @ Northern State (7-9)
Note - Boy, I tell you what, I was "" this close to putting Mary in the #2 spot. I was so unimpressed with WSU and impressed with Mary that it certainly did contemplate it. However, after looking at the whole body of work, I decided to go with WSU but just barely. Anthony Moody is just unreal. He scored 49 points this weekend, including 31 points against one of the top teams in the region. Although, my one observation is Moody is the player making this team go. Even on nights where he scores a lot, if the rest of the team isn't stepping up, there's a good chance Mary loses. However, with the way Mary is playing right now as a team, I don't think they have anything to worry about and even though they have a road game this weekend, I don't wonder what will happen when the league's best defense meets the league's worst defense. It might be awful to watch if you're a Northern State fan...

4. Augustana 10-5 (7-4 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ UM-Duluth 76-49
LG - W @ Wayne State 79-76 (2OT)
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Upper Iowa (5-10), Jan. 22 vs. Winona State (12-3)
Note - Uh oh, don't look now but it looks like the Vikings have found their sea legs at last (*smacks forehead*). Granted, their win in Wayne came a little harder than they would've liked. Still, winning in that environment is huge, even if it takes double overtime to do it. Granted, it took a young freshman in Yuriy Malashenko to get it to OT with a three-point shot with three seconds left to tie the game, but you'll take wins however you get them. If there is a concern for the Vikings though, it would be turnovers. You can't afford to turn the ball over 22 times and expect to win many ball games. Fortunately, the Vikings forced 19 WSC turnovers so they were able to keep in the game. If they turn the ball over that much against WSU, they could be in trouble.

5. Concordia-St. Paul 10-5 (8-4 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W vs. UM-Duluth 77-64
LG - W vs. Bemidji State 79-73
UG - Jan. 21 @ MSU-Moorhead (9-6), Jan. 22 @ UM-Crookston (6-9)
Note - The Golden Bears continue to surprise me and many others in the NSIC with how they are playing. I'm sure not many thought they'd have 10 wins at this point in the season but alas, they do and they are looking like an NSIC tournament team with how they are rolling. The good news for Concordia is big man Brent Barz is finally starting to find a rhythm. He scored 41 points this weekend in two games. If he can continue to put up big numbers, it'll take less pressure off of guys like the Olafeso brothers and Isiah Thomas. Lately the Golden Bears have been starting Andrew Kuderer instead of Courtney Tyler and it seems to be helping. Barz is getting hot at the right time because he'll be up against a mighty big dragon in Alex Novak this weekend.

6. St. Cloud State 8-7 (7-6 D2, 7-4 NSIC) (+1)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W vs. Bemidji State 92-88 (OT)
LG - W vs. UM-Duluth 94-74
UG - Jan. 21 @ UM-Crookston (6-9), Jan. 22 @ MSU-Moorhead (9-6)
Note - I want to know how many NSIC teams can claim they scored 90+ points in three consecutive games? The answer...one. It's St. Cloud State and I can honestly say, they are getting hot at the right time. Taylor Witt was in absolute beast mode over the weekend scoring 31 points, dishing out 12 assists and gathered nine steals in two games. It's incredible that he stole the ball seven times against UM-Duluth, but then again, it doesn't surprise me THAT much. When I saw SCSU was up by 29 at halftime, I didn't have any doubts about this one. With the way the Huskies are scoring, I can definitely see them making it five in a row...UM-Crookston just gave up 108 to WSU this past weekend and the Dragons don't exactly have an outstanding defense by any means. Although, I'm sure the Huskies are worried more about "winning" than getting 90 points.

7. Wayne State 9-6 (6-6 D2, 5-6 NSIC) (-1)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ Bemidji State 63-53
LG - L vs. Augustana 79-76
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Winona State (12-3), Jan. 22 vs. Upper Iowa (5-10)
Note - This was a spot that had me contemplating MSU-Moorhead but in the end, I decided to stick with the Wildcats. Reasons being is that even though they have the same record, Wayne State won a head-to-head against them and I also believe there shouldn't be any shame in losing to Augustana by three points in double overtime. Wayne State gets a dandy Friday night as Winona State comes to town and it'll be interesting to see the point guard matchup between Amry Shelby and Ben Fischer. Two are arguably all-NSIC performers. Will Shelby's offensive abilities pull through or will Fischer's lockdown defensive abilities keep him in check? We shall see...

8. MSU-Moorhead 9-6 (6-5 D2, 6-5 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L @ Upper Iowa 66-54
LG - W @ Winona State 95-87
UG - Jan. 21 vs. Concordia-St. Paul (10-5), Jan. 22 vs. St. Cloud State (8-7)
Note - Man, I just can't understand this MSU-Moorhead team. How do you lose at Upper Iowa and then pull off a win in Winona after getting a 22 point lead at halftime against Winona State? My only answer is when the Dragons are hot, they just can't be stopped...the only thing you can do is try and outscore them when the shots are dropping in the net for this team. They shot 34% against Upper Iowa...they shot 58% against Winona State. What a difference a day makes, huh? Compound the fact that they got 15 offensive rebounds against WSU and well...you catch my drift. If MSU-Moorhead can continue to play with passion and consistency, I think they'll be a really tough team in the NSIC and a tough out in the NSIC tourney. Although, they'll need to somehow pull through this weekend to even think about it...they've got two tough opponents this weekend.

9. Bemidji State 7-8 (4-8 D2, 4-7 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ St. Cloud State 92-88 (OT)
LG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 79-73
UG - Jan. 21 @ MSU-Mankato (13-2), Jan. 22 @ SW Minnesota State (6-9)
Note - I tell you what, the NSIC can be pretty unforgiving at times. Put this in perspective, after Friday night's game, the Beavers last five games would be against Augustana (10-5), Wayne State (9-6), St. Cloud State (8-7), Concordia-St. Paul (10-5) and MSU-Mankato (13-2). The records of those opponents are 50-25 (.666). That's a brutal stretch! It's hard to fault them with how they played at St. Cloud too because I'll be honest, that was one of the most exciting NSIC basketball games I watched all season. My feeling with the Beavers is, they are "close" but they aren't quite there yet as far as being a solid NSIC team. The pieces are coming together and they are playing solid NSIC teams tough but they are having a hard time pulling out wins. Their only win in that stretch is against a Wayne State team that's reeling a little bit. If the Beavers play with as much energy as they did against SCSU, I think they have a shot to win at MSU but that's a lot to ask for.

10. UM-Duluth 7-8 (5-8 D2, 5-6 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 0-5
PG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 77-64
LG - L @ St. Cloud State 94-74
UG - Jan. 21 @ SW Minnesota State (6-9), Jan. 22 @ MSU-Mankato (13-2)
Note - I'll be honest...I think 10-14 are all pretty even. Being the #10 team in the NSIC really doesn't have many (if not, any) bragging rights over the #14 team in the NSIC. The way the Bulldogs are playing right now, I wouldn't say they are the tenth best team in the NSIC. However, since no one will step up and take this spot from UMD, I guess I'll just leave it with them. It's amazing how a team can suddenly go 5-0 to 0-6 in a matter of weeks is amazing to me. What happened? Granted, I didn't expect them to get a win this weekend but they looked more abysmal than usual. Ryan Rasmussen, who was putting up monster numbers had a weekend to forget scoring 19 points on 7-of-23 shooting in two games. I guess if there's any good news for the Bulldogs, they'll be playing a team that's struggling just as much as they are in SMSU. Granted, the game is on the road so it won't be an easy one for the Bulldogs.

11. Upper Iowa 5-10 (4-9 D2, 4-7 NSIC) (-)
L5 - 1-4
PG - W vs. MSU-Moorhead 66-54
LG - L vs. UM-Crookston 73-66 (OT)
UG - Jan. 21 @ Augustana (10-5), Jan. 22 @ Wayne State (9-6)
Note - Question Peacocks...how the hell do you beat MSU-Moorhead and then lose to UM-Crookston? Are you just one of those teams that plays up and down to your competition? I just about did a back flip in surprise of hearing the Peacocks lost to Crookston. Then again, I think Upper Iowa contracted the same thing WSU had...they only scored 23 points in the first half and had to make a nice rally just to force OT. This was a bitter one for Upper Iowa to swallow because it won't get any easier when they have to travel to Sioux Falls and Wayne this weekend.

12. Northern State 7-9 (3-9 D2, 3-9 NSIC) (+1)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L vs. MSU-Mankato 91-73
LG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 78-70
UG - Jan. 22 vs. U-Mary
Note - Well, there is one nice thing I can say about Northern State...they are finally starting to play some better basketball. It's still not that great but they are slowly starting to climb out of the proverbial NSIC cellar. The 18-point loss to MSU was expected but I don't think many were expecting them to get a win against SMSU, especially considering how tough they played Mary the night before. However, the Wolves have played well in three of their last four games and are looking to get a few more NSIC wins. However, I can't see them getting one this weekend when their travel partner in Mary comes to town.

13. SW Minnesota State 6-9 (5-8 D2, 3-8 NSIC) (-1)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L @ U-Mary 60-48
LG - L @ Northern State 78-70
UG - Jan. 21 vs. UM-Duluth (7-8), Jan. 22 vs. Bemidji State (7-8)
Note - If you would've told me SMSU would be one of the bottom three teams in the NSIC in late January, I would've told you to start watching basketball because they are one of the top half teams in the NSIC. Wow, what was I thinking? I thought for sure they were CLEARLY the sixth best team in the NSIC but they aren't even clearly the 13th best team in the NSIC. They've lost four straight and eight of their last nine with their only win coming against Crookston. The question I have to ask is, what does Brad Bigler need to do to figure things out? This team nearly made the NCAA tournament last year...right now, they aren't even on pace to make the NSIC tourney. Now, one thing I have noticed with SMSU the last few years is they tend to start off the season slow. They were 4-8 last year in the NSIC at this time so there is still time for them to make it but they need to start playing great basketball and start playing now. Luckily, they get UMD to start off the weekend.

14. UM-Crookston 6-9 (2-9 D2, 2-9 NSIC) (-)
PG - L @ Winona State 108-68
LG - W @ Upper Iowa 73-66 (OT)
UG - Jan. 21 vs. St. Cloud State (8-7), Jan. 22 vs. Concordia-St. Paul (10-5)
Note - Congrats to the Golden Bears on actually winning a game! After the Wayne State stunner, I didn't know if they'd win another game in the NSIC. This was UM-Crookston's first NSIC road win since December 7th, 2007 when they won against Concordia-St. Paul. I apologize for the sarcastic congratulations but you earned it. Now, I wonder how badly they'll get annihilated this weekend against St. Cloud State and Concordia-St. Paul? I'm guessing they'll need Eric Dearden to go off for them to even stay in the game.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Adam Stanek's Central Region Rankings (Jan. 13, 2010)

I was going to do this toward the end of January, start of February but I decided to get an early start (due to some inspiration from MSUMavMan2009 from the D2Hoops.com message board).

P.S. RPI is total schedule, including DI, DIII and NAIA. It was considered in the making of these rankings but wasn't exactly the deciding factor between teams competing for certain spots.

1. MSU-Mankato 11-1 D2, 8-1 region
RPI: 12
D2 Opponent Record: 55-70 (.440)
In-Region Opponent Record: 45-47 (.489)
Record vs. .500+: 6-0 (1.000)
Quality Wins: @ Winona State (8-2), vs. Michigan Tech (9-3), vs. Augustana (6-4), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4), vs. Wayne State (6-5), vs. MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Notable Losses: None
Bad Losses: @ St. Cloud State (5-6)

2. Fort Lewis 11-2 D2, 11-2 region
RPI: 16
D2 Opponent Record: 70-80 (.466)
In-Region Record: 70-80 (.466)
Record vs. .500+: 4-1 (.800)
Quality Wins: @ Seattle Pacific (8-4), @ Washburn (6-5), vs. Adams State (7-2), vs New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: vs. Mesa State (10-3)
Bad Losses: @ CSU-Pueblo (4-6)

3. Winona State 8-2 D2, 7-2 region
RPI: 22
D2 Opponent Record: 53-54 (.495)
In-Region Opponent Record: 50-47 (.515)
Record vs. .500+: 2-1(.666)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Notable Losses: vs. MSU-Mankato (11-1)
Bad Losses: @ UM-Duluth (5-6)

4. Metro State 9-2 D2, 9-2 region
RPI: 18
D2 Opponent Record: 60-68 (.468)
In-Region Record: 60-68 (.468)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: @ Mesa State (10-3), vs. Colorado Mines (8-2)
Notable Losses: @ Central Washington (9-2), @ New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Bad Losses: None

5. Colorado Mines 8-2 D2, 8-2 region
D2 Opponent Record: 53-63 (.456)
In-Region Record: 53-63 (.456)
Record vs. .500+: 2-1 (.666)
Quality Wins: vs. St. Martin's (10-5), vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: @ Metro State (9-2)
Bad Losses: vs. Western New Mexico (5-8)

6. Adams State 7-2 D2, 7-2 region
RPI: 23
D2 Opponent Record: 53-58 (.477)
In-Region Record: 53-58 (.477)
Record vs. .500+: 1-2 (.333)
Quality Wins: vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4)
Notable Losses: @ Fort Lewis (11-2), vs. Mesa State (10-3)
Bad Losses: None

7. Mesa State 10-3 D2, 10-3 region
RPI: 23
D2 Opponent Record: 68-75 (.475)
In-Region Record: 68-75 (.475)
Record vs. 500+: 4-1 (.800)
Quality Wins: vs. Dixie State (5-4), vs. New Mexico Highlands (7-4), @ Fort Lewis (11-2), @ Adams State (7-2)
Notable Losses: @ Metro State (9-2)
Bad Losses: @ Chadron State (4-8), @ Nebraska-Kearney (6-8)

8. New Mexico Highlands 7-4 D2, 6-4 region
RPI: 36
D2 Opponent Record: 69-53 (.565)
In-Region Record: 60-51 (.540)
Record vs. .500+: 2-4 (.333)
Quality Wins: vs. Metro State (9-2), vs. Grand Valley State (9-2)
Notable Losses: @ Mesa State (10-3), @ Colorado Mines (8-2), @ Fort Lewis (11-2), @ Adams State (7-2)
Bad Losses: None

9. Mary 9-4 D2, 8-4 region
RPI: 45
D2 Opponent Record: 58-76 (.432)
In-Region Record: 56-69 (.448)
Record vs. .500+: 1-4 (.200)
Quality Wins: @ MSU-Moorhead
Notable Losses: vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-4), @ Augustana (6-4), @ Wayne State (6-5), @ Winona State (8-2)
Bad Losses: None

10. Augustana 6-4 D2, 6-4 region
RPI: 69
D2 Opponent Record: 53-53 (.500)
In-Region Record: 53-53 (.500)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), vs. Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Notable Losses: @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Bad Losses: @ SW Minnesota State (5-6), @ St. Cloud State (5-6)

Honorable Mentions:

Concordia-St. Paul 6-4 D2, 5-4 region
RPI: 45
D2 Opponent Record: 59-52 (.531)
In-Region Record: 53-45 (.540)
Record vs. .500+: 2-3 (.400)
Quality Wins: @ Mary (9-4), @ Wayne State (6-5)
Notable Losses: vs. MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ Augustana (6-4), @ Winona State (8-2)
Bad Losses: @ Northern State (2-8)

Wayne State 6-5 D2, 6-5 region
RPI: 54
D2 Opponent: 59-61 (.491)
In-Region Record: 59-61 (.491)
Record vs. .500+: 2-2 (.500)
Quality Wins: vs. Mary (9-4), @ MSU-Moorhead (5-4)
Notable Losses: @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), @ Concordia-St. Paul (6-4)
Bad Losses: @ SW Minnesota State (5-6), @ UM-Crookston (1-8), @ Bemidji State (4-6)

MSU-Moorhead 5-4 D2, 5-4 region
RPI: 90
D2 Opponent: 49-48 (.505)
In-Region Record: 49-48 (.505)
Record vs. .500+: 1-3 (.250)
Quality Wins: vs. Augustana (6-4)
Notable Losses: vs. Wayne State (6-5), @ MSU-Mankato (11-1), vs. Mary (9-4)
Bad Losses: @ UM-Duluth (5-6)

Adam Stanek's NSIC Power Rankings (Jan. 11, 2010)

Hey, y'all. Sorry, I took a month off after being assaulted with the holidays and work. Now that the holidays are over, I think I'll get back to doing my power rankings again. At least the good news is things are becoming a little more clear cut then they were when I left off. With no further ado, here are my rankings...

1. MSU-Mankato 12-1 (11-1 D2, 8-1 NSIC)
L5 - 5-0
PG - W vs. UM-Crookston 82-72
LG - W vs. SW Minnesota State 84-76
UG - Jan. 14 @ Northern State (6-8), Jan. 15 @ U-Mary (10-4)
Note - The Mavericks are one of the biggest surprises in the early season. Not only do they have the best record in the NSIC, but the best record in the region. They didn't have the most impressive set of home games but this year in the NSIC, it doesn't matter what you win by...just as long as you win. Jefferson Mason continues to put up all-NSIC type numbers, putting up 23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and six steals against the Mustangs. The Mavericks will have a challenging road test ahead of them, as Northern State is desperate for a win and U-Mary is playing great basketball right now.

2. Winona State 11-2 (8-2 D2, 7-2 NSIC)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ Concordia-St. Paul 85-62
LG - W @ St. Cloud State 93-91 (OT)
UG - Jan. 14 vs. UM-Crookston (5-8), Jan. 15 vs. MSU-Moorhead (8-5)
Note - Winona State could not have started the new year any better, going 4-0 in the last four games and against quality opponents (U-Mary, Northern State, Concordia-St. Paul, St. Cloud State). The Warriors had a great weekend completely annihilating Concordia-St. Paul on Saturday and followed it up with an intense win against St. Cloud, capped off with an 18-foot jumper with a second left in OT by Ben Fischer to give WSU a two-point win. However, the difference-maker lately has been Clayton Vette, who is starting to look like a dominant center. He scored 28 points on 12-of-16 shooting while gathering 13 rebounds. WSU comes back home and plays a few easier opponents this week, taking on UM-Crookston on Friday night and MSU-Moorhead on Saturday.

3. U-Mary 10-4 (10-4 D2, 6-4 NSIC)
L5 - 4-1
PG - W @ MSU-Moorhead 72-57
LG - W @ UM-Crookston 71-55
UG - Jan. 14 vs. SW Minnesota State (6-7), Jan. 15 vs. MSU-Mankato (12-1)
Note - It's hard to argue this spot with the way Mary is playing. They are only one of three teams in the NSIC with 10 victories and after starting out the conference season 1-3, they've rebounded nicely winning five of their last six games. Winning on the road in the NSIC isn't easy this year but Mary went 3-1 on these last two road trips, with the only loss being a one-point loss at Winona State. Anthony Moody is putting up NSIC POY numbers, leading the NSIC in scoring (19.6 PPG), sixth in assists (4.36 APG), eighth in steals (1.57 SPG), and minutes played (38.43 MPG). Mary is going to need a strong effort out of him and his teammates this weekend, because they will be hosting an SMSU team that's desperate for a victory and an MSU team that is poised to make a run at hosting the regional for a second straight year.

4. Augustana 9-5 (6-4 D2, 6-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - W @ Bemidji State 69-67
LG - W @ UM-Duluth 76-49
UG - Jan. 15 @ Wayne State (9-5)
Note - After getting the season off to a slow 3-3 start, the Vikings have rebounded nicely, winning three straight and six of their last eight games. The factor? Balance. In their wins against Bemidji and Duluth, four players scored in double figures in each game. It's not just the McCaffrey and Schilling show anymore in Sioux Falls. I think in many fans minds, they knew Augie would not be down for long. They are too well coached and have too much talent to be in the bottom half in the league. Considering how well the Vikings are playing, they might just be able to pull off a third straight road victory. It'll be tough though, as they play travel partner Wayne State in Wayne, NE...not an easy place to come away with a W.

5. Concordia-St. Paul 8-5 (6-4 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. Winona State 85-62
LG - W vs. Upper Iowa 82-73
UG - Jan. 14 vs. UM-Duluth (7-6), Jan. 15 vs. Bemidji State (7-6)
Note - I like to call the Golden Bears "the splitter," because it seems like they split every weekend series they play. Of the five weekends we've had in NSIC play, they've split four of them and the one they didn't was against their travel partner in St. Cloud State. They can come out and look great and they can also come out and look terrible. They looked mediocre against Augustana and downright dreadful against Winona State. However, they did seem to right the ship when they got a nice win against the Peacocks on Sunday. I had a hard time putting them here considering how they played against Augie and WSU but considering they beat SCSU in their home gym, I felt I owed them this much. This weekend's series could be an interesting one because UM-Duluth comes to town...they've been in a struggle losing four of their last five. They take on Bemidji State on Saturday night, a team that is 2-1 on the road and 2-4 at home.

6. Wayne State 9-5 (6-5 D2, 5-5 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - W @ UM-Duluth 111-104 (2OT)
LG - L @ Bemidji State 63-53
UG - Jan. 15 vs. Augustana (9-5)
Note - I had a tough time making this pick between Wayne and St. Cloud, but all-in-all, I decided to go with Wayne for two reasons. For one, they beat St. Cloud State handily the weekend before and secondly, their one loss last weekend was coming off a double-overtime performance. I almost had a loss written down in the column going into that Bemidji game because I thought they'd be exhausted from the game the night before. However, Wayne is far from playing their best basketball. During their 2-3 stretch, they are so far the only NSIC team this season to lose to UM-Crookston. That really needs to put a black eye on their program even though the Golden Eagles seem improved. All-in-all, the Wildcats need to take care of business this weekend when Augustana comes to town. They are two teams going in different directions right now.

7. St. Cloud State 6-7 (5-6 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - W vs. Upper Iowa 76-68
LG - L vs. Winona State 93-91 (OT)
UG - Jan. 14 vs. Bemidji State (7-6), Jan. 15 vs. UM-Duluth (7-6)
Note - I have a hard time putting the Huskies in this spot because I know they are better than the seventh best team in the NSIC. They are 6-7 but they're 5-3 in their last eight. They are making strides in the right direction but this team just can't get healthy. With Jesse Fisher and Theo Rothstein both out, they were only able to go eight deep this past weekend and really only seven of those guys saw significant minutes. Injuries have plagued the Huskies all season but with the way Taylor Witt and Andrew Bernstetter are playing, they are carrying this team. Bernstetter scored 64 points on 23-of-37 FG, 7-of-11 3ptFG, 11-of-14 FT and gathered 23 rebounds in two games. That's phenomenal, and Witt was no slouch himself scoring 43 points and dishing out 15 assists. However, the Huskies need to start getting production from their other players as both the Beavers and Bulldogs come to town. It might not be a bad draw considering the buzz saw they went through this past weekend.

8. MSU-Moorhead 8-5 (5-4 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. U-Mary 72-57
LG - W vs. Northern State 72-71
UG - Jan. 14 @ Upper Iowa (4-9), Jan. 15 @ Winona State (11-2)
Note - The Dragons are a tough team to read so far this season. I can't tell if they are really good or just plain average. In a sense, they are just like Concordia-St. Paul where they split just about every weekend. However, this past weekend did show that perhaps the Dragons are coming a bit down to Earth. While it was true that they got beat up at home against a Mary team that was hot as the sun, they struggled to beat a bottom-feeding Northern State team, who missed a shot at the buzzer that would've won the game. When I look at this Dragons team though, they seem to have a lot of young talent and rookie head coach Chad Walthall seems to be doing a good job of coaching them up. I know I didn't expect to see them at 8-5 at this point in the season, and beat teams like Augie and SMSU to get there. They'll have a challenge on their hands this weekend though when they travel to Upper Iowa, who are a pesky bunch and a red-hot Winona State team in McCown.

9. Bemidji State 7-6 (4-6 D2, 4-5 NSIC)
L5 - 3-2
PG - L vs. Augustana 69-67
LG - W vs. Wayne State 63-53
UG - Jan. 14 @ St. Cloud State (5-6), Jan. 15 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-5)
Note - After getting off to an abysmal start in NSIC play, the Beavers have looked much better of late, winning three of their last five and their two losses coming against U-Mary on their turf and Augie in a barn-burner. Much like Augustana, the Beavers seem to be finding better balance and the team appears to have much stronger play now that Lance Rongstad is finally starting to get healthy. James Ellisor has been a fantastic player in NSIC play thus far and now that Rongstad, Bryce Tesdahl, Mason Walters and Patrick Cassidy are supplying support, I believe they can make a push for the upper half of the NSIC. It'll be a challege getting there this weekend though, as they travel to St. Cloud and St. Paul for two tough games. It would serve them well if they could get at least a split on that road trip.

10. UM-Duluth 7-6 (5-6 D2, 5-4 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. Wayne State 111-104 (2OT)
LG - L vs. Augustana 76-49
UG - Jan. 14 @ Concordia-St. Paul (8-5), Jan. 15 @ St. Cloud State (6-7)
Note - Are the Bulldogs who we thought they were? Judging by the last five games, it certainly seems like it. After starting off conference play 4-0, they've now dropped four of their last five games. Worst part of all, three straight home losses. This is a terrible time for UMD to struggle because of the 13 remaining games on the schedule, only four of them are home games. Did I already mention it's not easy to win on the road? It's amazing that UMD went from first in the NSIC to a team that's in danger of dropping out of the top 8 in the NSIC in a matter of a month. This road trip to St. Paul and St. Cloud doesn't compound well for the Bulldogs because they are playing two teams that are tough to beat on their respective home courts and are playing much better basketball than the Bulldogs right now.

11. Upper Iowa 4-9 (3-8 D2, 3-6 NSIC)
L5 - 2-3
PG - L @ St. Cloud State 76-68
LG - L @ Concordia-St. Paul 82-73
UG - Jan. 14 vs. MSU-Moorhead (8-5), Jan. 15 vs. UM-Crookston (5-8)
Note - I had a tough time deciding between the Peacocks and Mustangs for this spot, but in the end, I decided to go with Upper Iowa because they've been playing much better basketball than the Mustangs, even in their losses. Upper Iowa might be the most deceptive 4-9 basketball team in the NSIC. They've only lost two conference games by double figures, and in both those games, they were extremely competitive for most of the game (against the top two teams in the NSIC, no less). However, the Peacocks are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and are looking to break out of it. They'll have a better chance this weekend when they host MSU-Moorhead and UM-Crookston. However, they also know they can't overlook either team, as both are better teams than they were last year.

12. SW Minnesota State 6-7 (5-6 D2, 3-6 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. MSU-Moorhead 84-64
LG - L @ MSU-Mankato 84-76
UG - Jan. 14 @ U-Mary (10-4), Jan. 15 @ Northern State (6-8)
Note - The Mustangs are in perhaps the worst slump I've ever personally seen them in. After starting off conference play with impressive wins over Augustana and Wayne State, they've lost six of their last seven games. It's hard to fault them though...four of those six losses were by two points or less. Irony would have it that one weekend provided losses with missed shots at the buzzer and the next weekend would be losing two games with made shots at the buzzer. Lately though, their losses are becoming more...horrific. Losing by 20 at MSU-Moorhead (despite how improved, is embarrassing). From the outside looking in, it appears this team needs somebody outside of Jordan Miller and Scott Roehl to step up for them. This will be a telling weekend for the Mustangs as they travel to Mary and Northern State this weekend. I guess if there's any good news, the Mustangs are 2-0 in the Dakotas/Nebraska...

13. Northern State 6-8 (2-8 D2, 2-8 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - W @ UM-Crookston 75-65
LG - L @ MSU-Moorhead 72-71
UG - Jan. 14 vs. MSU-Mankato (12-1), Jan. 15 vs. SW Minnesota State (6-7)
Note - I said at the beginning of the year that Northern State would surprise everyone in the league. Oh, they are surprising everyone all right...they are surprisingly bad. What's funny about Northern is they are the third best scoring team in the league, averaging 77.6 PPG. However, the problem is with their defense. They are dead last in scoring defense, giving up 77.4 PPG. Isn't it ironic what happens when you play a weak OOC? After starting out 5-0 (one being a conference victory), the Wolves have lost eight of their last nine games and their one win being at Crookston. Granted, the Wolves did play better this weekend, ALMOST getting a road sweep. However, the fact remains that they still aren't playing that well and need to do a better job on defense. This weekend, they come home but it might not be so home-sweet-home as they host the top team in the region thus far in MSU-Mankato and follow it up with an SMSU team who is just as desperate for a victory as they are.

14. UM-Crookston 5-8 (1-8 D2, 1-8 NSIC)
L5 - 1-4
PG - L vs. Northern State 75-65
LG - L vs. U-Mary 71-55
UG - Jan. 14 @ Winona State (11-2), Jan. 15 @ Upper Iowa (4-9)
Note - Well, I don't think any of us should be surprised that the Golden Eagles are the worst team in the NSIC but one thing I am surprised about is they aren't getting beaten as badly as I thought they would. Since their opening round games, they have not lost an NSIC game by more than 16 points. Last year, 14 of UMC's 22 losses were by more than that margin. So far, UMC only has two terrible losses and they were both the opening weekend of NSIC play. There are two big reasons why UMC plays much better this year. First reason, Eric Dearden. He's been a great addition to the Golden Eagles, scoring 13.4 PPG and is almost averaging two steals a game. Second reason, Adam Hendricks. Hendricks is averaging 11.5 PPG and appears to be the team's leader considering he's one of the few starters from last year's squad contributing to this one. The Golden Eagles are put in a tough situation as they travel to Winona State and Upper Iowa this weekend, two VERY tough places to play and win.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Adam Stanek's Men's Basketball NSIC Power Rankings (Dec. 5, 2010)

With the first week of NSIC basketball already over, it's hard to believe how the first weekend transpired. Friday night proved to be an exciting night of basketball where four games were decided by three points or less, including two overtime games. Saturday had two more games of similar magnitude. All-in-all, it leads to a somewhat difficult power ranking to make, especially to me personally. I don't really like doing co-rankings but this is one week where I had to have co-#1's.

T1. Winona State 5-0 (2-0 D2, 1-0 NSIC) (-)
PG - W vs. Clarke College 111-66
LG - W vs. Upper Iowa 78-61
UG - @ Bemidji State (4-2), @ UM-Duluth (4-2)
Note - It wasn't exactly a textbook victory for the Warriors, but they still came away with a solid 17 point victory over Upper Iowa. It wasn't a great win but it wasn't a terrible win either. The Warriors continue to see outstanding play out of sophomore center Clayton Vette. He scored a game-high 21 points on 8-of-11 shooting with seven rebounds. What intrigued me about WSU in this game was how unwilling they were to go to their bench, even though their bench saw a lot of minutes in non-conference play. Only Xavier Humphrey and Jon Walburg saw more than 10 minutes off the WSU bench. Brad Meyer only saw eight minutes of the bench and Taylor Cameron, the Warriors promising young freshman point guard only saw a minute. I guess if there's anything to take away from it, Coach Leaf probably realized the starters could probably play a few more minutes since they only played one game this weekend. The Warriors hit the road next weekend when they travel to Bemidji and Duluth.

T1. MSU-Mankato 6-0 (4-0 D2, 2-0 NSIC) (+2)
PG - W vs. Wayne State 74-63
LG - W vs. Augustana 83-67
UG - @ Concordia-St. Paul (4-2), @ St. Cloud State (2-4)
Note - This was a tough call for me to make. I couldn't decide if they should be #1 or #2. Finally, I just decided to make them co-#1 until next week. Their wins this weekend were very convincing, especially beating a high-caliber team like Augustana by 16. Considering how well coached the Vikings typically are, that's impressive. They also perhaps have the best non-conference win with a win over a 6-1 Michigan Tech team from the GLIAC. What is surprising me the most out of MSU-Mankato is how deep they are. They had nine players see 10+ minutes against Wayne State and Augustana. It was a good weekend for Jefferson Mason, scoring 16 points against Wayne State and 24 points against Augustana. I'm sure the Vikings are still a little concerned with their perimeter shooting, but with how talented they are up-and-down the roster, it's something they won't be worrying about too much. The Mavericks will have a challenging road contest this weekend when they travel to Concordia-St. Paul and St. Cloud State for their first NSIC road battles of the season.

3. SW Minnesota State 5-1 (4-0 D2, 2-0 NSIC) (+1)
PG - W vs. Augustana 66-64
LG - W vs. Wayne State 73-43
UG - @ St. Cloud State (2-4), @ Concordia-St. Paul (4-2)
Note - What a great weekend for the Mustangs. A big time home win against a great program like Augustana and then follow it up with a slamming of Wayne State. In the Vikings game, they did what they needed to do...allow someone other than Schilling or McCaffrey beat them. Of course, Schilling dropped 30 on them, but they help McCaffrey to seven points and not one other Viking scored in double figures. Against Wayne State, the Mustang defense was tenacious, only allowing the Wildcats to shoot 28% from the field and forced 18 turnovers. A 30 point victory is impressive against any team in the NSIC, let alone a solid Wayne State team that is in the running for a potential NSIC tournament bid. I know I was one that didn't think there was a big gap between the Mustangs and Wildcats...boy was I wrong. Could we be seeing another 2009-esque SMSU team on our hands? I don't think they are quite as good as that team was but they still seem to be a team that's buying in to Coach Brad Bigler's system and it's paying big dividends right now. With a road trip to St. Cloud and St. Paul, they could make a big statement as to what sort of team they have in the NSIC this year.

4. U-Mary 5-1 (5-1 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (-2)
PG - W vs. St. Cloud State 84-81 (OT)
LG - L vs. Concordia-St. Paul 70-67
UG - @ Augustana (3-3), @ Wayne State (4-2)
Note - What a roller coaster ride weekend for the Marauders. They had a thrilling OT battle with St. Cloud State on Friday night and then followed it up with a hard-fought, but disappointing loss to Concordia-St. Paul. The game against the Huskies felt like an NCAA tournament game with the sort of atmosphere and excitement surrounding the game. Granted, I'm sure both teams will be playing better when March rolls around, but it was still an exciting game with an exciting finish. Even after Damon Smith and Cameron Lee fouled out, this team was able to rally around guys like Baley Johnson and Jalen Jaspers to come up with big plays. In the Concordia-St. Paul game, the team struggled mightily from three-point range, hitting only 26% of their threes. It showed on the Marauders last possession as they had three open three-point shot attempts to tie the game up and missed on all three attempts. If there's an apparent weakness on this Mary team, it's that they still lack depth. Only eight players saw the floor in the Saturday game and only one of the bench players saw more than 10 minutes. Four of the five starters played 37 minutes or more, which is not a good sign when you played an OT game the night before. This team will have a challenging road test at Augustana and Wayne State this weekend. Despite both teams struggles, the Marauders won't want to overlook either of those teams.

5. Northern State 5-1 (1-1 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (+1)
PG - W vs. Concordia-St. Paul 96-94 (OT)
LG - L vs. St. Cloud State 91-83
UG - @ Wayne State (4-2), @ Augustana (3-3)
Note - It feels odd putting Northern State in this position. Splitting on your home court isn't necessarily a good thing. However, considering Augustana went 0-2 this past weekend, the Wolves made it to this position due in part to that event. The Wolves certainly need to be feeling good with the cast of players they have on this team, especially the new additions. Of Northern's top 5 scorers, only one of them is a player that returned from last year's active roster (Colin Pryor). Tom Parks, one of the new transfers had a nice game against Concordia-St. Paul, scoring 23 points on 5-of-8 shooting, 4-of-7 three-point shooting and 9-of-10 from the charity stripe. Against St. Cloud State, David Lane had a huge game, scoring 31 points on 10-of-15 shooting and made 10-of-13 free throw attempts. Northern State needs to find some consistency with their scorers because if they can get Pryor, Parks, Lane, Dustin Tetzlaff and Tydan Storrusten in double-figures consistently, this team will be hard to stop. Who knows? With Bojan Todorovic slowly getting back in game shape, this team could be a six-headed monster in the scoring column. I'm sure the Wolves will be looking for that consistency this weekend at Wayne and Sioux Falls because they are going to need it for this road trip.

6. Concordia-St. Paul 4-2 (2-1 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (+3)
PG - L @ Northern State 96-94 (OT)
LG - W @ Mary 70-67
UG - vs. MSU-Mankato (6-0), vs. SW Minnesota State (5-1)
Note - The Golden Bears are looking a little more golden in the NSIC Power Rankings this week after picking up an incredible road win in Bismarck, North Dakota last week. That's one of the toughest places to win in the NSIC and Concordia-St. Paul sure looked like they were up for the challenge. There were no last-second heroics needed for that game as the Golden Bears remained in control for a strong portion of that game. Concordia-St. Paul is getting great play out of the Olefeso brothers, especially Kenny, who tallied 19 points and nine rebounds against Northern State as well as 17 points and 13 rebounds against Mary. Brent Barz also seems to be getting back-on-track as he put up 17 points against both NSU and Mary. This weekend, the Golden Bears host a pair of tough NSIC basketball games against MSU-Mankato and SW Minnesota State. Even a split between those two might send them up the ranks. If they can sweep those two teams, who knows...you could see this team ranked as high as #2 or #3.

7. St. Cloud State 2-4 (1-3 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (+1)
PG - L @ Mary 84-81 (OT)
LG - W @ Northern State 91-83
UG - vs. SW Minnesota State (5-1), vs. MSU-Mankato (6-0)
Note - A road split at Mary and Northern State was huge for the Huskies. They could not afford to start off the conference season 0-2, especially considering how awful their non-conference season started off. It is really incredible to think how close the Huskies were to going 2-0 and 0-2. They came close to pulling off the upset against Mary but still fell a little short. Against Northern State, they were down by eight going in at halftime and caught fire in the second half, shooting 54% from the field and more importantly, shot 19-of-22 from the charity stripe (86%) to keep the Wolves at bay. The Huskies are going to need to pull for at least another split this weekend because they have a tall order in front of them. They draw SW Minnesota State on Friday night and then MSU-Mankato on Saturday night. The Huskies are being run through the gauntlet to start off the season and just need to hope they can pull through some of these tough games. With the way the Mustangs and Mavericks are playing, the Huskies might even be hard-pressed for a split.

8. Augustana 3-3 (0-2 D2, 0-2 NSIC) (-3)
PG - L @ SW Minnesota State 66-64
LG - L @ MSU-Mankato 83-67
UG - vs. Mary (5-1), vs. Northern State (5-1)
Note - Here's some food for thought, the Vikings have not lost three straight games since the 2005-2006 season. It just so happened that the Vikings lost four straight games that year and one of those losses in that string was at MSU-Mankato. Scary thought for Vikings fans...the Vikes finished 12-16 that year, 10-15 in D2. Needless to say, if Augustana repeats that this year, they won't even sniff at the NCAA Tournament. That would be a huge disappointment considering they've been the runners-up in the NSIC the past two seasons. However, we need to keep in consideration that we're only six games into the season. There is PLENTY of time for the Vikings to right the ship, but they'll need to do it in a hurry. They've got two tough home games to deal with right off the bat with Mary on Friday and Northern State on Saturday. If they drop both these games, they'd be looking at an 0-4 start in NSIC play and 3-5 overall. The key factor for Augustana this weekend is to get someone other than Schilling and McCaffrey going on the offensive end. Augie learned the hard way what happens when one of their top two scorers isn't producing on offense and it resulted in two losses.

9. Wayne State 4-2 (1-2 D2, 0-2 NSIC) (-2)
PG - L @ MSU-Mankato 74-63
LG - L @ SW Minnesota State 73-43
UG - vs. Northern State (5-1), vs. Mary (5-1)
Note - I'm not sure what happened to the Wildcats for three halves on this past road trip. The word "skunk" is an insult to skunks considering Wayne State's play the last three halves. In those three halves, the Wilcats have been outscored 117-67 and have only shot 22-of-74 (.297) from the field. Now THAT'S cold. It's not just the shooting with this team though. They turned the ball over 17 times against MSU and 18 times against SMSU. A combination of sloppy play offensively and poor shooting leads to very poor results. Right now, the Wildcats need somebody other than Amry Shelby to score for them, granted, it's not like Shelby lit up the Mustangs. Shelby needs Jensen, Starken, Tasa and Williams to help him out on the offensive end because he cannot carry the load by himself. Even though this team does get a well-needed homecoming from such a rough road test, it doesn't get much easier with Northern State and Mary on back-to-back nights. The Wildcats better pull for at least a split because starting off the conference 0-4 without even seeing Winona State, St. Cloud State or Augustana yet wouldn't look promising.

10. UM-Duluth 4-2 (2-2 D2, 2-0 NSIC) (+4)
PG - W vs. UM-Crookston 68-44
LG - W vs. MSU-Moorhead 71-70
UG - vs. Upper Iowa (1-4), vs. Winona State (5-0)
Note - Well, I can officially say the Bulldogs have surprised me. This team only won four conference games last year and are already halfway to matching that. I had a pretty good feeling they would beat UM-Crookston, but I thought the game would be much closer than what the final score was. The MSU-Moorhead game was certainly dramatic to say the least. To think what might have happened if Tarell Clark makes both free throws and sends the game into OT. I really wonder who would've pulled out the win in OT. I guess we should give a big welcome back to Ryan Rasmussen for showing up this weekend. If there was one guy not named Eric Erdmann that could've won NSIC POW honors, it might've been him. He scored 27 points on 10-of-16 FG, including 7-of-11 from three-point range against UM-Crookston and followed that up with 20 points on 6-of-15 shooting, including 6-of-6 from the charity stripe against MSU-Moorhead. They might need him to continue lighting up the scoreboard if they have any chance of pulling the upset against Winona State this weekend.

11. MSU-Moorhead 4-2 (1-1 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (-)
PG - W @ Bemidji State 60-58
LG - L @ UM-Duluth 71-70
UG - @ UM-Crookston (4-2)
Note - Wow, the Dragons were REALLY CLOSE to springing two road victories and perhaps climbing as high as #8 in my NSIC Power Rankings. Instead, a missed three throw killed those chances and they'll have to settle for what they were last week...#11. The good news for the Dragons is they did get that improbable win in Bemidji. I thought there was no way the Beavers drop that game to Moorhead, but they did. Major credit should be given to the Dragons for attacking the offensive glass. They outrebounded the Beavers 19-to-1 on the offensive glass and that was the difference between winning and losing that game. Unfortunately, that mentality doesn't work so well with UM-Duluth because they are better at attacking the glass than MSU-Moorhead is. The good news for MSU-Moorhead is they are taking better care of the basketball. They only turned the ball over seven times against BSU and 12 times against UMD. More good news is they play at UM-Crookston this weekend...definitely a winnable game for them to end their three-game road stretch.

12. Upper Iowa 1-4 (0-3 D2, 0-1 NSIC) (+1)
PG - W vs. Valley City State 88-59 (N)
LG - L @ Winona State 78-61
UG - @ UM-Duluth (4-2), @ Bemidji State (4-2)
Note - I must admit, the Peacocks are a much better basketball team than I gave them credit for. It's so easy to laugh at them with a 1-4 record, but they've lost tough games to some darn good basketball teams. In D2, they lost to a 4-2 Quincy, a 7-1 Drury and a 5-0 Winona State. Some props to the Peacocks for not only scheduling those teams, but hanging with their opponents in those games as well. I believe the Peacocks luck is about to change. They travel to UM-Duluth and Bemidji State this weekend. I have a feeling they will win one of those two games. Which one? It's tough to say. It's just a feeling I have. The one key for them is that somebody outside of Matt Lesan or Tucker Wentzien NEEDS to step up. I know Peacocks fans would be saying Dan Bestul but he was essentially non-existent against Winona State, scoring seven points on 3-of-5 shooting and only gathering four rebounds. All I will say is it will take a total team effort to pull off an upset in either Bemidji or Duluth, but I believe they can do it.

13. Bemidji State 4-2 (1-2 D2, 1-1 NSIC) (-3)
PG - L vs. MSU-Moorhead 60-58
LG - W vs. UM-Crookston 88-63
UG - vs. Winona State (5-0), vs. Upper Iowa (1-4)
Note - Am I a little harsh putting the Beavers at the metaphorical cellar (considering UM-Crookston has it reserved)? Perhaps...but one thing I will say, losing at home to MSU-Moorhead is BAD. I'm not exactly saying the Dragons are the worst team in the NSIC but that's a game you have to win on your home floor if you want to make a push for the NSIC Tournament. I have a feeling the Beavers are not that far from doing it...but they REALLY need to win those games on their home floor. As for the problem with this team, it's obvious. It is rebounding and low post defense. Dennis Williamson and Alex Novak had their way with the Beavers in the low block, combining for 26 rebounds. The Beavers should consider themselves lucky Novak couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in that game. If they struggle against Dennis Williamson, how are they going to fare against the 3rd highest scoring post player in the NSIC in Clayton Vette? They've got Winona State on Friday and Upper Iowa on Saturday. Losing to WSU wouldn't be unexpected but if they lose at home to Upper Iowa, this team could be in trouble.

14. UM-Crookston 4-2 (0-2 D2, 0-2 NSIC) (-2)
PG - L @ Bemidji State 88-63
LG - W vs. St. Scholastica 64-56
UG - vs. MSU-Moorhead (4-2)
Note - Well, that's what I get for getting my hopes up for UM-Crooston...they get into NSIC play and get EXPOSED!!! They lose by 24 to a less than average UM-Duluth team and by 23 to a Bemidji State team coming off a bad loss to MSU-Moorhead. I'd say, "well, at least they got a nice non-conference win against St. Scholastica, right?" That's even less impressive considering St. Cloud State just beat this same St. Scholastica team by 34 points. It is especially sad that it was a five-point game with 1:30 remaining. The phrase "they are who we thought they were" holds true. They aren't the least bit improved from last year and to be honest, they are probably worse. I really don't have high hopes for them in their upcoming game against MSU-Moorhead. Considering this MSU-Moorhead won in Bemidji, a place the Golden Eagles lost by 23 doesn't bode well. I don't care if this game is at home, it's still bad news for Crookston.