Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Adam Stanek's Men's Basketball NSIC Power Rankings (Start 'em up) Edition

With the NSIC kicking things off this weekend, I just thought I'd do my NSIC Power Rankings once again before we get things underway. I'll try and do these every week from now on. With no further ado, here they are...

1. Winona State 4-0 (1-0 D2) (-)
PG - W @ Barry 83-75 (OT)
LG - W vs. Clarke College 111-66
UG - vs. Upper Iowa (1-3)
Note - I would be lying to myself if the Warriors didn't look like the best team in the NSIC right now. They are coming off a blowout home win against Clarke College. They didn't look good in the first half, going into half with only a 13 point lead and turned the ball over 10 times. However, they had an outstanding second half performance, outscoring Clarke by 32 and not turning the ball over at all in the second half. There are two things that have really surprised me about the Warriors at this point in the season. The first being how well they have gelled at this point in the season. With the players they have and brought in, I thought their chemistry would be bad to start off with. Not so. The second being the emergence of their D1 transfers Anthony Tucker and Clayton Vette. Tucker is currently averaging 21.5 PPG (1st in NSIC) and Vette is averaging 14.8 PPG (18th in NSIC). These were the two guys I expected that needed to step up for the Warriors to be successful and so far they have been. They start off NSIC play nice and easy with one home game against Upper Iowa.

2. U-Mary 4-0 (4-0 D2) (-)
PG - W vs. Saginaw Valley State 51-36 (N)
LG - W vs. PR-Rio Piedras 98-63 (N)
UG - vs. St. Cloud State (1-3), vs. Concordia-St. Paul (3-1)
Note - The Marauders have certainly got their season off on the right foot. They had a very successful trip down to Florida, picking up a victory over a very solid Saginaw Valley State team. Most importantly, they are 4-0 against D2 opponents, which looks very good if the Marauders want to make a push for the NCAA tournament. Part of the reason behind the Marauders early season success is the emergence of a third scorer. Anthony Moody and Eric Erdmann were proven stars but the one guy that's stepped up his game is Jordan Wilhelm. Wilhelm is currently averaging 16.8 PPG (T-9th in NSIC) along with Moody averaging 18.3 PPG (6th in NSIC). With Moody's driving and passing ability, Wilhelm's outside shot and Erdmann's inside game, the Marauders are looking like a force to be reckoned with. The Marauders are looking to start off NSIC play on the right foot as they host St. Cloud State and Concordia-St. Paul this weekend.

3. MSU-Mankato 4-0 (3-0 D2) (+1)
PG - W vs. Michigan Tech 63-61
LG - W vs. Eureka College 120-44
UG - vs. Wayne State (4-0), vs. Augustana (3-1)
Note - Just like Winona State, I am surprised at how well things are going for the Mavericks to start off the season. After losing some great players from last year's squad, I thought it'd take them a few games to adjust, but they look just fine to me. They didn't play particularly well against Michigan Tech and still won, which is worth saying something considering the Huskies are 4-1 to start off the season. Jefferson Mason isn't WOWING anyone yet, but he's putting up some solid all-round stats, while notable Marcus Hill and Cameron Hodges are putting up some good numbers. With some surprising bench play out of Joe Drapcho and Jimmy Whitehead, as well as Andre Gilbert coming back and showing some signs of promise, I think the Mavericks could be a team to watch out for in the NSIC. They start off the season with two tough home games against Wayne State and Augustana. If they can get off to a 2-0 start with those two teams, all the more power to them.

4. SW Minnesota State 3-1 (2-0 D2) (+1)
PG - W vs. Minnesota-Morris 87-65
LG - W vs. NW Missouri State 47-46
UG - vs. Augustana (3-1), vs. Wayne State (4-0)
Note - The Mustangs are heading in the right direction as they swept the home-and-away series with NW Missouri State. Sure, they weren't impressive wins but they are wins nonetheless. Their only loss was at D1 South Dakota State, which certainly wasn't a bad loss by any means. Jordan Miller and Scott Roehl have been absolute monsters for the Mustangs thus far in the early season and Roehl is nearly averaging a double-double a game at 16.5 PPG (12th in NSIC) and 9.0 RPG (3rd in NSIC). However, the Mustangs might need someone else to pick up the scoring load, however Matt Zager has looked poised to fill that position as a redshirt freshman. What's scary is this team has yet to see Vinard Birch step up...trust me, I think he will too. If Birch can get going and this team can find a 3rd and 4th scorer, look out, they'll be tough. This weekend should provide a good test for the Mustangs as they host Augustana and Wayne State.

5. Augustana 3-1 (0-0 D2) (-2)
PG - W vs. Valley City State 65-53
LG - L vs. Dakota State 52-51
UG - @ SW Minnesota State (3-1), @ MSU-Mankato (4-0)
Note - I really don't know what to think of the Vikings. To be honest, I almost feel like I'm rating them too high...and then again, I feel like I'm rating them too low. It's tough to get a read on a team that's expected to be one of the best teams in the conference, but then lose a game at home to Dakota State. No offense to Dakota State, but they had no business beating Augustana...but they did. Even though Augie is loaded with talent, they sort of remind me a lot of Winona State last year. It is a team full of inexperienced players and are asking two players to carry the load. So far, Cody Schilling and Cameron McCaffrey have been outstanding, yet mediocre. They are terrific scorers but it also feels like they are trying too much to score and now allowing their teammates to get into the mix. To be honest, Augie NEEDS to find a guy outside of Schilling and McCaffrey to contribute on the offensive end. I thought that guy would be Nathan Truex since he averaged 6.0 PPG in 15.6 MPG on a talented scoring team. However, Truex has fallen off the map with this team, averaging 1.3 PPG in 11.8 MPG. Overall, Augie needs to fix things fast because they could be looking at 3-3 if this road trip doesn't go well in Marshall and Mankato.

6. Northern State 4-0 (0-0 D2) (-)
PG - W vs. Jamestown 86-80
LG - W vs. Mayville State 74-68
UG - vs. Concordia-St. Paul (3-1), vs. St. Cloud State (1-3)
Note - While the Wolves aren't playing as well as I expected them to, they still have a very solid, athletic team that I think can make some noise in the NSIC. I dare you to find many players that are playing better than Colin Pryor right now. Pryor is currently scoring 17.8 PPG (7th in NSIC) and averaging 10.5 RPG (1st in NSIC). I think what's scary about the Wolves is that they are deep. I'd say they are probably coming close to matching the Warriors in the depth department. With guys like Dustin Tetzlaff, Tydan Storrusten and Bojan Todorovic coming off the bench, it's hard not to say that. Granted, I think we'll see Todorovic start sooner or later, as he is recovering from a knee injury. Northern State has an opportunity to show that they are a team to be reckoned with when Concordia-St. Paul and St. Cloud State come to town. This will be a particularly good opportunity to perhaps kick the Huskies while they're down and on their home turf.

7. Wayne State 4-0 (1-0 D2) (-)
PG - W vs. York College 75-64
LG - W vs. Dakota State 84-80 (OT)
UG - @ MSU-Mankato (4-0), @ SW Minnesota State (3-1)
Note - I'll be honest, I feel like I am underrating Wayne State. To me, it feels like they are playing better than the 7th best team in the NSIC. On top of that, they did something Augustana could not...beat Dakota State at home. Granted, it took OT to do it, but they still did it. There are two things that are surprising me about the Wildcats. For one, they are extremely balanced with their scoring. They have five players scoring 9.8 PPG or more. To me, that bodes well if you can have somebody else step up on your team when somebody else is struggling. On top of that, after losing key players like Brett Spiker and Brian Metz, to have balance like that is incredible. The second thing that's surprising me about the Wildcats is the play of Amry Shelby. Granted, he led the team in scoring last year at 13.8 PPG, he's taken his game to another level, averaging 18.5 PPG (T-5th in NSIC) and has a 2.60 A/TO ratio (2nd in NSIC). He's a dangerous player in the NSIC. We'll see if the Wildcats can prove they deserve to be in the forefront when they go to Mankato and Marshall this weekend.

8. St. Cloud State 1-3 (0-2 D2) (-)
PG - L vs. Grand Canyon 71-65 (N)
LG - W vs. St. Scholastica 88-54
UG - @ U-Mary (4-0), @ Northern State (4-0)
Note - While the Huskies maybe 1-3, that's no reason to take the Huskies for granted. With how things have gone in St. Cloud to start the year, it should come as no surprise they are 1-3. They lost Tim Bergstrasser for the rest of the season (torn ACL), they've missed Andrew Bernstetter and Josh Ortmann for a few games this season (both are back in the lineup now), Nate Phillips was suspended for the first 2 games of the season due to violating a team rule and now Theo Rothstein appears to have an injured ankle (missed 1 game vs. St. Scholastica). If there is some good news, most of these players are back and playing for the Huskies but it should be needless to say that all these guys were sorely missed during their non-conference games. If there is a bright spot for the Huskies, it has been the emergence of freshman center Ben Bucholz. Bucholz is currently averaging 11.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG, not bad for a frosh. I do feel kind of bad for St. Cloud considering they are only playing one home game in their first six games. Of course, I am including the current road trip to Mary and Northern State. I believe the Huskies would be more than happy to split this road trip...but an 0-2 start to the conference season would not bode well for the Huskies.

9. Concordia-St. Paul 3-1 (1-0 D2) (-)
PG - W vs. Valley City State 69-63
LG - W vs. Academy of Art (CA) 77-67
UG - @ Northern State (4-0), @ U-Mary (4-0)
Note - I REALLY don't know what to think of the Golden Bears. They are more hot-and-cold than Katy Perry. They looked good at UW-Parkside but AWFUL against St. Thomas. They looked AWFUL against Valley City State but good against the Academy of Art (which may not be a D2, play a lot of D2 schools). I guess it should be understandable when you have the turnover the Golden Bears had. They have almost a completely different starting five than they had last year. The one thing the Golden Bears have a lot of compared to prior years teams is athleticism. Tyler Courtney, Isiah Thomas and the Olafeso brothers (Peter and Kenny) have a ton of athleticism to go with Brent Barz in the low post. One thing I am surprised by is the lack of production from Barz. Barz is currently only averaging 9.0 PPG and 5.0 RPG. I do believe those numbers will go up as we get into NSIC play, but he'll need them to go up if the Golden Bears want to have any sort of success in the NSIC. It could be a rough road trip for the Golden Bears as they start off the season at Mary and Northern State. I'd say that's the toughest road trip of all...certainly up there with going to MSU-Mankato and SW Minnesota State...

10. Bemidji State 3-1 (0-1 D2) (-)
PG - W vs. UW-Stout 89-87
LG - W @ Jamestown 75-60
UG - vs. MSU-Moorhead (3-1), vs. UM-Crookston (3-0)
Note - Are they 'G? They certainly could be. Their only loss was in Houghton, Michigan...which is not an easy place to play. Not to mention they have been without Lance Rongstad so far this season. He did make his comeback against Jamestown even though he saw limited minutes. The one player that is putting the 'G factor back into Bemidji is James Ellisor, who is looking like one of the best newcomers to the NSIC. Ellisor is currently averaging 20.5 PPG (3rd in NSIC) and 8.0 RPG (5th in NSIC). Did I mention this guy hasn't missed a free throw yet (21-of-21)? I believe he gives the Beavers a dynamic that they might not have had last year. Granted, it's tough to replace a player like Seth Haake, but it looks like the Beavers have done just that. I believe with Rongstad back in the lineup and the current rotation the Beavers have, they could be a pretty scary team. Bryce Tesdahl is just as dynamic as he's ever been and Patrick Cassidy has really stepped up his game as an inside-outside scoring threat. The Beavers have an opportunity to get the season started on a high note as they host MSU-Moorhead and UM-Crookston this weekend.

11. MSU-Moorhead 3-1 (0-0 D2) (+2)
PG - L @ Concordia-Moorhead 83-78
LG - W vs. Gustavus Adolphus 68-57
UG - @ Bemidji State (3-1), @ UM-Duluth (2-2)
Note - If there's a mystery team to me in the NSIC, it's the MSU-Moorhead Dragons. The reason why I say that is they have size, athleticism and a balanced scoring effort. However, they are 3-1 with a REALLY bad loss to Concordia-Moorhead. They seem to turn the ball over a lot as well, being only one of three teams in the NSIC that has a negative turnover margin against their opponents. However, they do have scorers...and a lot of them. They are the only team in the NSIC that has five players averaging double-figures per game (granted there is a HUGE dropoff after those five players). This team doesn't get much from their bench but their starters do score a lot. I think the Dragons could clear a lot of mystery about them under new head coach Chad Walthall if they can go into Bemidji and Duluth and come away with wins. Granted, those aren't exactly "powerhouse" teams in the NSIC but I think it might be a way to prove they aren't a bottom tier NSIC team.

12. UM-Crookston 3-0 (0-0 D2) (+2)
PG - W @ Mayville State 78-76
LG - W vs. Crossroads College 105-42
UG - @ UM-Duluth (2-2), @ Bemidji State (3-1)
Note - Okay, maybe the Golden Eagles aren't as bad as I thought they'd be. Mayville State barely lost to Northern State and MSU-Moorhead and UM-Crookston did what they didn't do...won in their place. On top of that, they kicked Crossroads College around like the Sisters of the Poor (sorry, I had to get one Gordon Gee comment in this). Right now, the bottom tier in the NSIC is hard to figure out because the Golden Eagles have a few guys I didn't think of would be big time contributors for them (or at the very least last year). Larry Brown has been solid, averaging 17.7 PPG (8th in NSIC). Adam Hendricks has also stepped up his game, averaging 15.7 PPG (15th in NSIC). The question is, can the Golden Eagles get out of the cellar in the NSIC? It'll be interesting to see since they start off the year with two road games but right now it is wait-and-see with this team.

13. Upper Iowa 1-3 (0-2 D2) (-1)
PG - L vs. Academy of Arts (CA) 63-61 (N)
LG - W vs. Valley City State 88-59 (N)
UG - vs. Winona State (4-0)
Note - I really don't know what to think of this Peacocks team. I see they still play a ridiculous amount of players in one game. I still know Matt Lesan is "the man" on this team, averaging 18.5 PPG (T-4th in NSIC). However, the truth is, it is hard to gauge the Peacocks because they've played a really tough schedule so far and haven't really played any "middle of the road" teams. The closest team to that "middle of the road" would be Academy of Arts and it was a close loss for Upper Iowa. For the Peacocks to succeed, the need somebody outside of Lesan, Tucker Wentzien and Dan Bestul to step up. Upper Iowa is truly comparative to a box of chocolates. There's a lot of variety and you just don't know what you're going to get...all I know is most of the time, it leaves a sour taste in your mouth and you'll be wanting to demand a refund. We'll see with this team though. They brought back a lot of players from last year and we'll see how they handle NSIC teams this year. I don't think they could've asked for a worse NSIC opponent to start off with than at Winona State. I guess that's just the tough luck the Peacocks have.

14. UM-Duluth 2-2 (0-2 D2) (-4)
PG - L vs. Cal State-Dominguez Hills 65-60 (N)
LG - W vs. UW-Superior 78-74
UG - vs. UM-Crookston (3-0), vs. MSU-Moorhead (3-1)
Note - Well, I wonder what Bulldogs team we'll see this week since they've had a week off from their game against UW-Superior. You might be wondering, why did I drop the Bulldogs four spots when they didn't play a game? It was basically a matter of getting a better evaluation of the teams I placed ahead of them. All-in-all, I just think teams like Upper Iowa and UM-Crookston have played better than UM-Duluth, granted the Bulldogs played Dominguez Hills pretty tough. In general, the bottom four teams are really hard to rank because of the early season. Obviously Crookston won't go undefeated and I'll be really surprised if the Bulldogs finish .500 after the conference season has come and gone. However, the Bulldogs do have a good opportunity to boost their record to 4-2 with two of the "bottom feeders" coming to their house this weekend. UM-Duluth better hope somebody other than Adam Rasmussen or Dylan Rodriguez steps up for them this weekend. If the non-conference is any indication, Jake Hottenstine and Riley Walker could make a big name for themselves in this weekend's games.

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