Now that we are nearing the halfway point in the season, we're starting to get a grasp of who's who in the NSIC. With that being said, let's preview each game in the NSIC and see how it pans out.
Saturday, October 2, 2010
#20 Augustana (4-0, 3-0 NSIC) @ Concordia-St. Paul (3-1, 2-1 NSIC) 12:00 p.m.
If you look at this Augustana football team, they have shown that they are a tough, resilient football team. They started off the season with two big time victories at home against St. Cloud State and a shut out victory in Bemidji. They are battle tested and you can bet that they'll be ready to go on the road to take on a greatly improved Concordia-St. Paul football team. This team has been impressive with sophomore quarterback Josh Hanson under center. Through the first four games, Hanson has lit up defenses, completing 83-of-130 passes for 1300 yards, 12 TDs and only 1 interception. Of course, with a wide receiver like Tyler Schulte, who wouldn't put up numbers like that? Schulte has caught 26 passes for 615 yards and 10 TDs. If there is a downside to Augie so far, it is that they haven't quite been able to establish the run game. Last year, running back Joe Clark rushed for 1020 yards on 202 carries with 10 TDs...averaging 5.0 YPC. This year, Clark has carried the ball 54 times for 189 yards and 3 TDs...only averaging 3.5 YPC. Perhaps the cat is out of the bag...or perhaps Clark will break out in this game against the Golden Bears. Concordia-St. Paul is 3rd to last in the NSIC in rush defense, giving up 181 yards per game on the ground. Despite Concordia-St. Paul's woes on defense, the offense has carried them and already matched the number of wins they had all of last year. While not putting up monster numbers, junior quarterback Spencer Ohm has been efficient, completing 75-of-123 passes for 907 yards with 9 TDs and 3 picks. He'll have his hands full on Saturday when he takes on one of the best defenses in the NSIC. How will this game pan out? Even though Concordia-St. Paul is on Cloud 9 after getting a huge win on the road, Augustana is on a whole new level. They will not beat themselves and I foresee the Vikings going into Seafoam Stadium and coming away with a 17 point win. Final Score prediction...Augustana 31 Concordia-St. Paul 14
Upper Iowa (0-4, 0-3 NSIC) @ Bemidji State (2-2, 1-2 NSIC) 1:00 p.m.
I don't think anyone can doubt Bemidji State had a pretty tough start to the season. Taking on UM-Duluth and Augustana twice in three weeks is no easy task. However, the Beavers can rejoice that they finally get a fairly easy home test against the Peacocks from Fayette, Iowa. Upper Iowa has certainly had an underachieving season, going 4-0 to start out the year. Of course, you can also say Upper Iowa has had just as tough a stretch as the Beavers, playing Texas A&M-Commerce, UM-Duluth and Winona State in three of their first four games. However, the biggest difference with Upper Iowa is their inability to make second half adjustments has hurt them badly. In their four games this season, they've been outscored 96-10. Somebody let the Peacocks know that there are two halves to football because I'm seeing the Upper Iowa logo on the side of milk cartons lately with how they seem to go missing after halftime. At any rate, this is a game where Bemidji State can look at how they played in the 4th quarter against UM-Duluth and bring that confidence against the Peacocks. Bemidji State only lost by 23 in Duluth...which might not sound good, but considering the Bulldogs have beaten top 25 competition by 25+ is something to be happy about. My prediction? The Peacocks do what they've done all season. They'll play tough, only going into halftime down by 7-10, but they'll come out in the second half and Bemidji State's defense will shut them down. Bemidji State 28 Upper Iowa 7.
#2 UM-Duluth (4-0, 3-0 NSIC) @ MSU-Moorhead (2-2, 2-1 NSIC)
Watch out Bulldogs, the Dragons are on a two game winning streak...eh, not really. MSU-Moorhead has a record that would make anyone laugh because despite them being 2-2, this is probably the best record they'll have all season. They are coming off back-to-back wins against Upper Iowa and UM-Crookston, which is nothing to brag about. In that win over Upper Iowa, the Peacocks almost outgained the Dragons 2-to-1 on offense. The difference in that game was special teams and turnovers. MSU-Moorhead played well against the Golden Eagles but that shouldn't be a surprise. Everyone plays well against UM-Crookston. The question is, how do the Dragons match up against the Bulldogs? The answer is...not very well. If you look at the Dragons two losses against quality opponents (Missouri Southern and Winona State), they gave up 313 yards and 259 yards on the ground. Considering they are facing one of the best rushing attacks in D2 led by all-American running back Issac Odim, I'd say the odds are against the Dragons. I can forsee Issac Odim having a big day on the ground...even if that day only lasts two or three quarters. I foresee him rushing for 200 yards and 4 TDs. My prediction? Who wins in a fight between a bulldog and a dragon? Well, considering that dragon is Mushu from Mulan, I'm putting my money on the Bulldogs. UM-Duluth 64 MSU-Moorhead 10
UM-Crookston (1-3, 0-3 NSIC) vs. U-Mary (0-4, 0-3 NSIC) 1:00 p.m.
This might be the least interesting matchup in the NSIC this week...unless you're interested in finding out who the worst team in the NSIC is. Then I'd say it's the most interesting game of the week. Here's all you need to know...UM-Crookston since starting conference play has been outscored 158-27. Mary on the other hand has played tough but seem to just not have enough spark on offense with Jamal Lomax being out on apart of injury. He's only played in one of Mary's four games and that was in a 21-14 loss to SW Minnesota State, a game that they had a chance to win. Considering that both teams have two of the worst scoring defenses in the NSIC, this could be a high scoring game. All I will say is high scoring doesn't necessarily mean "exciting". How do I see this game? I see Mary getting their first win of the season on their home field. At least it should give Mary fans something to be excited about. Mary 42 UM-Crookston 27
St. Cloud State (3-1, 3-0 NSIC) @ Northern State (0-4, 0-3 NSIC)
Northern State might be the best 0-4 football team I've seen in a long time. They've lost 3 of their 4 games by 10 points or less this season. However, Northern State is slowly heading in the wrong direction. Since the beginning of the season, they've lost by 4, 7, 10 and 24. What's ironic about this is the competition keeps getting tougher. SW Minnesota State, MSU-Mankato, Concordia-St. Paul and Wayne State. They take on St. Cloud State this weekend and then they play Augustana. If it weren't for UM-Crookston screwing up the schedule, they'd play UM-Duluth after Augustana. I just find that a little ironic. Overall, I just don't see Northern State, despite being at home, being able to compete with a team like the Huskies. Freshman QB Philip Klaphake has been impressive this season. He's completed 63-of-98 passes for 937 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 interception. What's impressed me most about Klaphake is his ability to run the football the last few weeks. The first few weeks, he showed off his arm, but the last two weeks, he's rushed 14 times for 75 yards and a TD vs. Winona State and 10 carries for 56 yards and 2 TDs against Mary. If he can be a multi-dimensional quarterback, that will only help in the long run because it seems like in the last few weeks that defenses have been concentrating on shutting down the St. Cloud State passing game. It has certainly helped the Huskies running game, that's for sure. Overall, I thought Northern State was a decent football team but seeing this trend they have, I just don't think they'll be able to compete in this one. They might be able to keep it close for a while but they just don't have the weapons to hang with the Huskies. St. Cloud State 38 Northern State 17.
#25 MSU-Mankato (3-1, 2-1 NSIC) @ Winona State (3-1, 2-1 NSIC) 6:00 p.m.
I think even Mavericks fans can admit that so far, their season has been a disappointment. The offensive line and special teams have just been a mess for the Mavericks. Of course, I'm sure they can relate some of these problems to the QB situation. Pachan has been roughed up a bit and missed the last 3 weeks due to injury and the Mavericks have asked a freshman quarterback in Will Brogan to step up in his place. The defense has played very well. They lead the NSIC in scoring defense at 12.8 PPG, but defense can only take you so far. In order to be a great football team, you need a great defense, an efficient offense and a solid special teams unit. The Mavericks only have 1 of the 3 right now. When the punter is essentially the MVP of the team, that doesn't bode well for the Mavericks. The team they are facing this weekend is solid in all three aspects. Winona State is 2nd in scoring offense at 37.5 PPG, has the 4th best scoring defense at 17.2 PPG and has the top punt return unit in the NSIC at 21.8 yards per return. While WSU does have an average kicking game with Kinney being 3-of-6 on FG and 19-of-20 on PATs, he hasn't been nearly as bad as Brockshus, who is 0-of-6 on FG attempts and 12-of-13 on PATs. Like I said, I look at football as being a three-aspect game. Offense, defense and special teams. The Warriors are better in all three aspects and I foresee them coming out victors in a huge white-out night game. Winona State 28 MSU-Mankato 14
Wayne State (3-1, 2-1 NSIC) @ SW Minnesota State (2-2, 1-2 NSIC) 6:00 p.m.
Despite this being a night game, I don't expect it to be a great game. Wayne State is a lethal football team, who is certainly one of the best teams in the NSIC. If you throw out a tough 42-10 loss to UM-Duluth, Wayne State has outscored their opponents 136-43. This is including a 44-20 win without their starting quarterback Cyle Schultz. SW Minnesota State was a team that I put under the microscope after week 3. They started off the season 2-0 with unimpressive wins against Northern State and Mary. I said, we shall see in the next three weeks if this team is for real or if they are who we thought they were. Figures, they are who we thought they were. They lost by 16 at home to an under-performing Bemidji State team and they lost by 33 at Augustana. Now they take on Wayne State at home and I just don't see them being able to rally around starting quarterback Ryan Ratekin. He's a very good quarterback but it seems like there is a lack of talent surrounding him on offense and he is trying to overcompensate. I like to call it, Brett Favre 2005 syndrome. I don't think this bodes well for the Mustangs, even being at home under the lights. I see Wayne State winning big. Wayne State 45 SW Minnesota State 21
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